Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34297818›Full record

ArticleThe British journal of surgery2021

Prediction of long-term survival after gastrectomy using random survival forests.

S A Rahman, N Maynard, N Trudgill, T Crosby, M Park, H Wahedally, T J Underwood, D A Cromwell, NOGCA Project Team and AUGIS

Open access · hybridAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in The British journal of surgery, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed
2.9field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 33 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. Application of random survival forest to establish a nomogram combining clinlabomics-score and clinical data for predicting brain metastasis in primary lung cancer.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2025
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  16. Outcomes after gastrectomy according to the Gastrectomy Complications Consensus Group (GCCG) in the Dutch Upper GI Cancer Audit (DUCA).Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

S A RahmanSchool of Cancer Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9489-0021
N MaynardOxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Oxford, UK.
N TrudgillSandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust, Birmingham, UK.
T CrosbyVelindre Cancer Centre, Cardiff, UK.
M ParkClinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK.
H WahedallyClinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK.
T J UnderwoodSchool of Cancer Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
D A CromwellClinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK.
NOGCA Project Team and AUGIS
Royal College of Surgeons of England · GBOxford University Hospitals NHS Trust · GBSandwell & West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust · GBUniversity of Southampton · GBVelindre Cancer Centre · GB

Funding

Cancer Research UK 23924
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNo well validated and contemporaneous tools for personalized prognostication of gastric adenocarcinoma exist. This study aimed to derive and validate a prognostic model for overall survival after surgery for gastric adenocarcinoma using a large national dataset.

methodsNational audit data from England and Wales were used to identify patients who underwent a potentially curative gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma of the stomach. A total of 2931 patients were included and 29 clinical and pathological variables were considered for their impact on survival. A non-linear random survival forest methodology was then trained and validated internally using bootstrapping with calibration and discrimination (time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve (tAUC)) assessed.

resultsThe median survival of the cohort was 69 months, with a 5-year survival of 53.2 per cent. Ten variables were found to influence survival significantly and were included in the final model, with the most important being lymph node positivity, pT stage and achieving an R0 resection. Patient characteristics including ASA grade and age were also influential. On validation the model achieved excellent performance with a 5-year tAUC of 0.80 (95 per cent c.i. 0.78 to 0.82) and good agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities. A wide spread of predictions for 3-year (14.8-98.3 (i.q.r. 43.2-84.4) per cent) and 5-year (9.4-96.1 (i.q.r. 31.7-73.8) per cent) survival were seen.

conclusionsA prognostic model for survival after a potentially curative resection for gastric adenocarcinoma was derived and exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration of predictions.

Indexed as

GastrectomyAdenocarcinomaEnglandFollow-Up StudiesHumansPostoperative PeriodPrognosisRetrospective StudiesROC CurveStomach NeoplasmsSurvival RateTime FactorsWales

Identifiers

PMID34297818
PMCPMC10364915
OpenAlexW3187073625

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.