Spatio-temporal modelling for the evaluation of an altered Indian saline Ramsar site and its drivers for ecosystem management and restoration.

Saline lakes occupy 44% and 23% of the volume and area of all lakes that are tending to suffer from extended dryness, reduced hydro period, or complete desiccation by 2025. The current study is conducted on Sambhar Salt Lake, the largest inland saline Ramsar, site of India, contributing to 9.86% of total salt production. The lake is under threat due to illegal salt pan encroachment, losing brine worth 300 million USD. The objective was to identify the key drivers that affect the lake at a landscape level. Geospatial modelling was conducted for 96 years (1963-2059) at a decadal scale, integrating ground data (birds-soil-water). Land Use Land Cover (LULC) classification was conducted using CORONA aerial imagery of 1963, along with Landsat imageries, using supervised classification for 1972, 1981, 1992, 2009, and 2019, and future prediction for 2029, 2039, 2049, and 2059. Further, images were classified into 8 classes that include the Aravali hills, barren land, saline soil, salt crust, salt pans, wetland, settlement, and vegetation. Past trends show a reduction of wetland from 30.7 to 3.4% at a constant rate (4.23%) to saline soil, which subsequently seemed to increase by 9.3%, increasing thereby the barren land by 4.2%; salt pans by 6.6%, and settlement by 1.2% till 2019. Future predictions show loss of 40% wetland and 120% of saline soil and net increase in 30% vegetation, 40% settlement, 10% salt pan, 5% barren land, and a net loss of 20%, each by Aravali hills and salt crust. Additionally, the ground result shows its alteration and reduction of migratory birds from 3 million to 3000. In the light of UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030), restoration strategies are suggested; if delayed, more restoration capital may be required than its revenue generation.