ArticleFrontiers in public health2021
Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predictive dynamical modeling and stability of the equilibria in a discrete fractional difference COVID-19 epidemic model.Results in physics · 2023Article
- Twice evasions of Omicron variants explain the temporal patterns in six Asian and Oceanic countries.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Optimal COVID-19 epidemic strategy with vaccination control and infection prevention measures in Thailand.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Modeling Cross-Regional Transmission and Assessing the Effectiveness of Restricting Inter-Regional Population Movements in Controlling COVID-19 - Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, 2021.China CDC weekly · 2022Article
- Reduction in the infection fatality rate of Omicron variant compared with previous variants in South Africa.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Impact of low vaccine coverage on the resurgence of COVID-19 in Central and Eastern Europe.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- COVID-19 contact tracing in Belgium: main indicators and performance, January - September 2021.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2022Article
- Infection fatality rate and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in South American countries.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- Modelling of Waning of Immunity and Reinfection Induced Antibody Boosting of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus, Brazil.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Modelling COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections in highly vaccinated Israel-The effects of waning immunity and third vaccination dose.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Investigating the effectiveness of re-opening policies before vaccination during a pandemic: SD modelling research based on COVID-19 in Wuhan.BMC public health · 2021Article
- The Second Wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and the Effects of Vaccination.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
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5 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models, with the exponentially distributed duration of exposed/infectious statuses, the mean generation interval (GI, time lag between infections of a primary case and its secondary case) equals the mean latent period (LP) plus the mean infectious period (IP). It was widely reported that the GI for COVID-19 is as short as 5 days. However, many works in top journals used longer LP or IP with the sum (i.e., GI), e.g., >7 days. This discrepancy will lead to overestimated basic reproductive number and exaggerated expectation of infection attack rate (AR) and control efficacy. We argue that it is important to use suitable epidemiological parameter values for proper estimation/prediction. Furthermore, we propose an epidemic model to assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 for Belgium, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We estimated a time-varying reproductive number [
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