Northern shrimp Pandalus borealis population collapse linked to climate-driven shifts in predator distribution.

The northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis Krøyer) population in the Gulf of Maine collapsed during an extreme heatwave that occurred across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean in 2012. Northern shrimp is a boreal species, and reaches its southern limit in the Gulf of Maine. Here we investigate proximate causes for the population collapse using data from fishery-independent surveys, environmental monitoring, and the commercial fishery. We first examined spatial data to confirm that the decline in population estimates was not due to a major displacement of the population, and then tested hypotheses related to fishing mortality and shifts in predation pressure. Fishing mortality may have contributed but could not explain the magnitude of the decline or the disappearance of pre-exploitable size individuals. Stomach contents analysis and biomass trends revealed no new fish predators of shrimp. However, longfin squid (Doryteuthis pealeii Lesueur) was unique among all species in showing time-series biomass peaks during spring, summer and fall of 2012, and spatial overlap with northern shrimp was unusually high in 2012. Longfin squid is a voracious and opportunistic predator that consumes crustaceans as well as fish. We hypothesize that the warmer temperatures of 2012 not only led to expansion of longfin squid distribution in Gulf of Maine, but had differential effects on migration phenology that further increased spatial overlap with northern shrimp. The weight of our evidence suggests that longfin squid predation was likely a significant factor in the collapse of northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine.