Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34285814›Full record

ArticleCardiology research and practice2021

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Ventricular Arrhythmia in Elderly Patients with Coronary Heart Disease.

Ying Dong, Yajun Shi, Jinli Wang, Qing Dan, Ling Gao, Chenghui Zhao, Yang Mu, Miao Liu, Chengliang Yin, Rilige Wu and 3 more

RetractedOpen access · goldAbstract readRetracted Publication
In one paragraph

Article in Cardiology research and practice, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It has been retracted, and should not be counted. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
0.8field-weighted citation impact, top 26% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Ying DongDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5069-8166
Yajun ShiDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Jinli WangDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Qing DanDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Ling GaoDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Chenghui ZhaoDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Yang MuDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Miao LiuGraduate School of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Chengliang YinNational Engineering Laboratory for Medical Big Data Application Technology, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Rilige WuMedical Big Data Research Center, Medical Innovation Research Division of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Yuqi LiuDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Yang LiDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5706-1830
Xueping WangDepartment of Cardiology, First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8055-8180
Chinese PLA General Hospital · CNMacau University of Science and Technology · MO

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSudden cardiac death is a leading cause of death from coronary heart disease (CHD). The risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) increases with age, and sudden arrhythmic death remains a major cause of mortality in elderly individuals, especially ventricular arrhythmias (VA). We developed a risk prediction model by combining ECG and other clinical noninvasive indexes including biomarkers and echocardiology for VA in elderly patients with CHD.

methodIn the retrospective study, a total of 2231 consecutive elderly patients (≥60 years old) with CHD hospitalized were investigated, and finally 1983 patients were enrolled as the model group. The occurrence of VA within 12 months was mainly collected. Study parameters included clinical characteristics (age, gender, height, weight, BMI, and past medical history), ECG indexes (QTcd, Tp-e/QT, and HRV indexes), biomarker indexes (NT-proBNP, Myo, cTnT, CK-MB, CRP, K

resultsIn the multiparameter model, seven independent predictors were selected: LVEF, LAV, HLP, QTcd, sex, Tp-e/QT, and age. Increased HLP, Tp-e/QT, QTcd, age, and LAV were risk factors (RR > 1), while female and increased LVEF were protective factors (RR < 1). This model can well predict the occurrence of VA in elderly patients with CHD (for model group, AUC: 0.721, 95% CI: 0.669∼0.772; for verification group, AUC: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.648∼0.818; Hosmer-Lemeshow

conclusionsLVEF, LAV, QTcd, Tp-e/QT, gender, age, and HLP were independent predictors of VA risk in elderly patients with CHD. Among these factors, the echocardiology indexes LVEF and LAV had the greatest influence on the predictive efficiency of the model, followed by ECG indexes, QTcd and Tp-e/QT. After verification, the model had a good degree of differentiation and calibration, which can provide a certain reference for clinical prediction of the VA occurrence in elderly patients with CHD.

Identifiers

PMID34285814
PMCPMC8275423
OpenAlexW3181133190

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.