Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34285206›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Topological measures for identifying and predicting the spread of complex contagions.

Douglas Guilbeault, Damon Centola

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Multiplexing in networks and diffusion.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. A simple threshold captures the social learning of conventions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Diffusion of complex contagions is shaped by a trade-off between reach and reinforcement.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Collective dynamics behind success.Nature communications · 2024
    Review
  11. Distribution of centrality measures on undirected random networks via the cavity method.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Threshold Cascade Dynamics in Coevolving Networks.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Douglas GuilbeaultHaas School of Business, The University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Damon CentolaThe Annenberg School for Communication, The University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA. dcentola@asc.upenn.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-8084-2333

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The standard measure of distance in social networks - average shortest path length - assumes a model of "simple" contagion, in which people only need exposure to influence from one peer to adopt the contagion. However, many social phenomena are "complex" contagions, for which people need exposure to multiple peers before they adopt. Here, we show that the classical measure of path length fails to define network connectedness and node centrality for complex contagions. Centrality measures and seeding strategies based on the classical definition of path length frequently misidentify the network features that are most effective for spreading complex contagions. To address these issues, we derive measures of complex path length and complex centrality, which significantly improve the capacity to identify the network structures and central individuals best suited for spreading complex contagions. We validate our theory using empirical data on the spread of a microfinance program in 43 rural Indian villages.

Indexed as

Information DisseminationModels, TheoreticalSocial NetworkingComputer SimulationDatasets as TopicFemaleForecastingHumansIndiaMalePeer GroupRural Population

Identifiers

PMID34285206
PMCPMC8292353

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.