Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34284227›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2021

The impact of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation interventions to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic: A modeling study.

Yang Ge, Zhiping Chen, Andreas Handel, Leonardo Martinez, Qian Xiao, Changwei Li, Enfu Chen, Jinren Pan, Yang Li, Feng Ling and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
1.5field-weighted citation impact, top 19% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

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  11. Age and Cultural Differences in Recognitions of Emotions from Masked Faces among Koreans and Americans.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Yang GeUniversity of Georgia, College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Athens, Georgia, United States.
Zhiping ChenZhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China.
Andreas HandelUniversity of Georgia, College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Athens, Georgia, United States; University of Georgia, College of Public Health, Health Informatics Institute, Athens, Georgia, United States; University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, Athens, Georgia, United States.
Leonardo MartinezBoston University, School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Boston, Massachusetts, United States.
Qian XiaoUniversity of Georgia, Department of Statistics, Athens, Georgia, United States.
Changwei LiUniversity of Georgia, College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Athens, Georgia, United States; Tulane University, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Department of Epidemiology, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States.
Enfu ChenZhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China.
Jinren PanZhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China.
Yang LiRenmin University of China, Center for Applied Statistics, Beijing, China; Renmin University of China, School of Statistics, Beijing, China; Renmin University of China, Statistical Consulting Center, Beijing, China. Electronic address: yang.li@ruc.edu.cn.
Feng LingZhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China. Electronic address: fengl@cdc.zj.cn.
Ye ShenUniversity of Georgia, College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Athens, Georgia, United States. Electronic address: yeshen@uga.edu.
Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention · CNGeorgia College & State University · USBoston University · USRenmin University of China · CNTulane University · USUniversity of Georgia · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionMost countries are dependent on nonpharmaceutical public health interventions such as social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation to mitigate COVID-19 spread until medicines or vaccines widely available. Minimal research has been performed on the independent and combined impact of each of these interventions based on empirical case data.

methodsWe obtained data from all confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 7th to February 22nd 2020 in Zhejiang Province, China, to fit an age-stratified compartmental model using human contact information before and during the outbreak. The effectiveness of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation was studied and compared in simulation. We also simulated a two-phase reopening scenario to assess whether various strategies combining nonpharmaceutical interventions are likely to achieve population-level control of a second-wave epidemic.

resultsOur study sample included 1,218 symptomatic cases with COVID-19, of which 664 had no inter-province travel history. Results suggest that 36.5 % (95 % CI, 12.8-57.1) of contacts were quarantined, and approximately five days (95 % CI, 2.2-11.0) were needed to detect and isolate a case. As contact networks would increase after societal and economic reopening, avoiding a second wave without strengthening nonpharmaceutical interventions compared to the first wave it would be exceedingly difficult.

conclusionsContinuous attention and further improvement of nonpharmaceutical interventions are needed in second-wave prevention. Specifically, contact tracing merits further attention.

Indexed as

COVID-19EpidemicsContact TracingHumansPhysical DistancingSARS-CoV-2Case isolationContact tracingCOVID-19ModelingSocial distancing

Identifiers

PMID34284227
PMCPMC8275486
OpenAlexW3181347104

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.