ArticleCancers2021
Effect of Asbestos Consumption on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy: Forecasts of Mortality up to 2040.
Article in Cancers, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Asbestos Consumption and Malignant Mesothelioma Mortality Trends in the Major User Countries.Annals of global health · 2023Pooled it
- Spatio-temporal trends in pleural mesothelioma mortality in Italy: a 40-year analysis by calendar period and birth cohort.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Update on mesothelioma incidence and forecast of future cases in Belgium.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Projecting future mortality risk of pleural mesothelioma in Italy (2020-2034): Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis over 40 years of death registration.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Cancer mortality in chrysotile miners and millers, Russian Federation: main results (Asbest Chrysotile Cohort-Study).Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2024Article
- Asbestos ban policies and mesothelioma mortality in Greece.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Pleural mesothelioma risk in the construction industry: a case-control study in Italy, 2000-2018.BMJ open · 2023Article
- The Epidemiological Surveillance of Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy as a Tool for the Prevention of Asbestos Exposure.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Article
- The Italian Experience in the Development of Mesothelioma Registries: A Pathway for Other Countries to Address the Negative Legacy of Asbestos.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Mortality rates from asbestos-related diseases in Italy during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Mortality due to respiratory system disease and lung cancer among female workers exposed to chrysotile in Eastern China: A cross-sectional study.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Article
- Burden of Mortality from Asbestos-Related Diseases in Italy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Statistical models used to forecast malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) trends often do not take into account historical asbestos consumption, possibly resulting in less accurate predictions of the future MPM death toll. We used the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach to predict future MPM cases in Italy until 2040, based on past asbestos consumption figures. Analyses were conducted using data on male MPM deaths (1970-2014) and annual asbestos consumption using data on domestic production, importation, and exportation. According to our model, the peak of MPM deaths is expected to occur in 2021 (1122 expected cases), with a subsequent decrease in mortality (344 MPM deaths in 2039). The exposure-response curve shows that relative risk (RR) of MPM increased almost linearly for lower levels of exposure but flattened at higher levels. The lag-specific RR grew until 30 years since exposure and decreased thereafter, suggesting that the most relevant contributions to the risk come from exposures which occurred 20-40 years before death. Our results show that the Italian MPM epidemic is approaching its peak and underline that the association between temporal trends of MPM and time since exposure to asbestos is not monotonic, suggesting a lesser role of remote exposures in the development of MPM than previously assumed.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.