ArticleBMJ open2021
Predicting mortality of individual patients with COVID-19: a multicentre Dutch cohort.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Pooled it
- Artificial intelligence-driven prediction of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death: a systematic review.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Development and Validation of a Machine Learning-Based Risk Assessment Tool for In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly Patients with Postoperative Hypoxemia Following Non-Cardiac Surgery.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Structured Inequality, Uncertain Lifespans: Demographic Perspectives on Predicting Individual-Level Longevity.Population and development review · 2026Article
- Post-COVID-19 Consequences in Relatives of Severely Ill Patients: Results of the Prospective Multicenter NeNeSCo Study.Clinical nursing research · 2025Article
- Associations between metabolomic scores and clinical outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.GeroScience · 2025Article
- Host Response Protein Biomarkers Indicative of Persistent Acute Kidney Injury in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients.Critical care explorations · 2025Article
- A data management system for precision medicine.PLOS digital health · 2025Article
- An elastic net regression model for predicting the risk of ICU admission and death for hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Predicting mortality risk in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: an early model utilizing clinical symptoms.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2024Article
- The Incidence of Pulmonary Embolism in Hospitalized Non-ICU Patients with COVID-19 during the First Wave: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study in the Netherlands.Journal of vascular research · 2024Article
- Integrative Plasma Metabolic and Lipidomic Modelling of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Relation to Clinical Severity and Early Mortality Prediction.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023Article
- Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Patients Who Have Undergone Liver Transplantation Because of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.Transplantation proceedings · 2023Article
- Assess and validate predictive performance of models for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: A retrospective cohort study in the Netherlands comparing the value of registry data with high-granular electronic health records.International journal of medical informatics · 2022Observational
- Machine learning-based derivation and external validation of a tool to predict death and development of organ failure in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Severe COVID-19: A Systematic Review and External Validation of Clinical Prediction Rules.Biomedicines · 2022Article
- Age is the main determinant of COVID-19 related in-hospital mortality with minimal impact of pre-existing comorbidities, a retrospective cohort study.BMC geriatrics · 2022Article
- Mortality and readmission rates among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with varying stages of chronic kidney disease: a multicenter retrospective cohort.Scientific reports · 2022Observational
- Machine Learning-based Derivation and External Validation of a Tool to Predict Death and Development of Organ Failure in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19.Research square · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
37 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveDevelop and validate models that predict mortality of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital.
designRetrospective cohort study.
settingA multicentre cohort across 10 Dutch hospitals including patients from 27 February to 8 June 2020.
participantsSARS-CoV-2 positive patients (age ≥18) admitted to the hospital.
main outcome measures21-day all-cause mortality evaluated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The predictive value of age was explored by comparison with age-based rules used in practice and by excluding age from the analysis.
results2273 patients were included, of whom 516 had died or discharged to palliative care within 21 days after admission. Five feature sets, including premorbid, clinical presentation and laboratory and radiology values, were derived from 80 features. Additionally, an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-based data-driven feature selection selected the 10 features with the highest F values: age, number of home medications, urea nitrogen, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, oxygen saturation (%), oxygen saturation is measured on room air, oxygen saturation is measured on oxygen therapy, blood gas pH and history of chronic cardiac disease. A linear logistic regression and non-linear tree-based gradient boosting algorithm fitted the data with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.85) and 0.82 (0.79 to 0.85), respectively, using the 10 selected features. Both models outperformed age-based decision rules used in practice (AUC of 0.69, 0.65 to 0.74 for age >70). Furthermore, performance remained stable when excluding age as predictor (AUC of 0.78, 0.75 to 0.81).
conclusionBoth models showed good performance and had better test characteristics than age-based decision rules, using 10 admission features readily available in Dutch hospitals. The models hold promise to aid decision-making during a hospital bed shortage.
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