Assessment of Spatio-Temporal Variation and Driving Mechanism of Ecological Environment Quality in the Arid Regions of Central Asia, Xinjiang.

Grassland ecosystems are increasingly threatened by pressures from climate change and intensified human activity, especially in the arid region of Central Asia. A comprehensive understanding of the ecological environment changes is crucial for humans to implement environmental protection measures to adapt to climate change and alleviate the contradiction between humans and land. In this study, fractional vegetation coverage (FVC), leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity of vegetation (GPP), land surface temperature (LST), and wetness (WET) were retrieved from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite remote sensing products in 2008 and 2018. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to establish the MODIS data-based ecological index (MODEI) in the study area, and the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving mechanism of ecological quality in the last ten years were explored. The results showed that: (1) FVC, GPP, LAI, and WET had positive effects on the ecological environment, while LST had a negative impact on the ecological environment. FVC and GPP were more significant than other indicators. (2) The MODEI showed a spatial pattern of "excellent in the north and poor in the south" and changed from north to south in the study area. (3) From 2008 to 2018, the average MODEI of Fuyun County increased from 0.292 to 0.303, indicating that the ecological quality in Fuyun County became better overall. The improved areas were mainly located in the summer pastures at higher elevations. In comparison, the deteriorated areas were concentrated in the spring and autumn pastures and winter pastures at lower elevations. The areas where the ecological environment had obviously improved and degraded were distributed along the banks of the Irtysh River and the Ulungur River. (4) With the increase in precipitation and the decrease in grazing pressure, the MODEI of summer pasture was improved. The deterioration of ecological environment quality in spring and autumn pastures and winter pastures was related to the excessive grazing pressure. The more significant changes in the MODEI on both sides of the river were associated with implementing the herdsmen settlement project. On the one hand, the implementation of newly settled villages increased the area of construction land on both sides of the river, which led to the deterioration of ecological quality; on the other hand, due to the increase in cropland land and the planting of artificial grasses along the river, the ecological quality was improved. The study offers significant information for managers to make more targeted ecological restoration efforts in ecologically fragile areas.