ArticleJournal of arthropod-borne diseases2021
Spatial Modelling of Malaria in South of Iran in Line with the Implementation of the Malaria Elimination Program: A Bayesian Poisson-Gamma Random Field Model.
Article in Journal of arthropod-borne diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Iran's Journey Through Malaria: From Past Challenges to Future Elimination-A Narrative Review.Journal of tropical medicine · 2026Review
- Unraveling the spatiotemporal clustering of malaria incidence and modeling a decade of epidemiological data in Jimma Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Forecasting malaria dynamics based on causal relations between control interventions, climatic factors, and disease incidence in western Kenya.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Genetic diversity of merozoite surface protein-5 (MSP-5) of Plasmodium vivax isolates from Malaria patients in Iran.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Absence of Asymptomatic Malaria Reservoirs in an Area with a Previous History of Local Malaria Transmission: A Successful Experience in Line with the Malaria Elimination Program in Iran.Journal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2023Article
- Entomological survey of malaria vectors in Dashtestan County, South of Iran.Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology · 2023Article
- Molecular Method Is Essential to Identify Asymptomatic Malaria Reservoirs: A Successful Experience in the Malaria Elimination Program in Iran.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Spatio-temporal variability of malaria infection in Chahbahar County, Iran: association with the ENSO and rainfall variability.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2022Article
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5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundMalaria is the third most important infectious disease in the world. WHO propose programs for controlling and elimination of the disease. Malaria elimination program has begun in first phase in Iran from 2010. Climate factors play an important role in transmission and occurrence of malaria infection. The main goal is to investigate the spatial distribution of incidence of malaria during April 2011 to March 2018 in Hormozgan Province and its association with climate covariates.
methodsThe data included 882 confirmed cases gathered from CDC in Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences. A Poisson-Gamma Random field model with Bayesian approach was used for modeling the data and produces the smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR).
resultsThe SIR for malaria ranged from 0 (Abu Musa and Haji Abad districts) to 280.57 (Bandar-e-Jask). Based on model, temperature (RR= 2.29; 95% credible interval: (1.92-2.78)) and humidity (RR= 1.04; 95% credible interval: (1.03-1.06)) had positive effect on malaria incidence, but rainfall (RR= 0.92; 95% credible interval: (0.90-0.95)) had negative impact. Also, smoothed map represent hot spots in the east of the province and in Qeshm Island.
conclusionBased on the analysis of the study results, it was found that the ecological conditions of the region (temperature, humidity and rainfall) and population displacement play an important role in the incidence of malaria. Therefore, the malaria surveillance system should continue to be active in the region, focusing on high-risk areas of malaria.
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