ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2021
Exploring secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic cases using contact tracing data.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Temporal Pattern of the Emergence of a Mutant Virus Escaping Cross-Immunity and Stochastic Extinction Within a Host.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- A Novel Tool for Real-time Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of Communicable Diseases Using Contact-Tracing Data: Development and Deployment.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection in Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
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2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIndividuals with asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can propagate the virus unknowingly and thus have been a focus of public health attentions since the early stages of the pandemic. Understanding viral transmissibility among asymptomatic individuals is critical for successful control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study aimed to understand SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility among young asymptomatic individuals and to assess whether symptomatology was associated with transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic infections.
methodsWe analyzed one of the first-identified clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infections with multiple chains of transmission that occurred among university students in March 2020 in Kyoto prefecture, Japan, using discrete and two-type branching process models. Assuming that the number of secondary cases resulting from either primary symptomatic or asymptomatic cases independently followed negative binomial distributions, we estimated the relative reproduction numbers of an asymptomatic case compared with a symptomatic case. To explore the potential association between symptomatology and transmission of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic incident infections, we also estimated the proportion of secondary symptomatic cases produced by primary symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.
resultsThe reproduction number for a symptomatic primary case was estimated at 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61-2.09). The relative reproduction number for asymptomatic cases was estimated at 0.19 (95% CI: 0.03-0.66), indicating that asymptomatic primary cases did not result in sufficient numbers of secondary infections to maintain chains of transmission. There was no apparent tendency for symptomatic primary cases to preferentially produce symptomatic secondary cases.
conclusionsUsing data from a transmission network during the early epidemic in Japan, we successfully estimated the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection at 0.22. These results suggest that contract tracing focusing on symptomatic index cases may be justified given limited testing capacity.
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