ArticleJournal of translational medicine2021
Trajectories of cardiovascular disease risk and their association with the incidence of cardiovascular events over 18 years of follow-up: The Tehran Lipid and Glucose study.
Article in Journal of translational medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cardiovascular risk patterns through AI-enhanced clustering of longitudinal health data.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2025Article
- Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2025Observational
- Changes in 10-Year Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk for a Multiethnic Semirural Population in South East Asia: Prospective Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Changes in the exposure to cardiovascular disease risk factors in an 18 year follow-up study of a cohort of middle age urban residents. The Polish arm of the HAPIEE study.Cardiology journal · 2024Article
- Trajectory patterns of metabolic syndrome severity score and risk of type 2 diabetes.Journal of translational medicine · 2023Article
- Cardiovascular health trajectories and subsequent cardiovascular disease and mortality: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).American journal of preventive cardiology · 2023Article
- The 30-year cardiovascular risk trajectories and their independently associated factors in participants of a Brazilian cohort (CUME Study).Cadernos de saude publica · 2023Article
- Trajectories of Lipid Profile and Risk of Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.Nutrients · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundUnderstanding long-term patterns (trajectories) of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk and identifying different sub-groups with the same underlying risk patterns could help facilitate targeted cardiovascular prevention programs.
methodsA total of 3699 participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) (43% men, mean age = 53.2 years), free of CVD at baseline in 1999-2001 and attending at least one re-examination cycle between the second (2002-2005) and fourth cycles (2009-2011) were included. We examined trajectories of CVD risk, based on the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equation, over ten years and subsequent risks of incident CVD during eight years later. We estimated trajectories of CVD risk using group-based trajectory modeling. The prospective association of identified trajectories with CVD was examined using Cox proportional hazard model.
resultsThree distinct trajectories were identified (low-low, medium-medium, and high-high risk). The high-high and medium-medium CVD risk trajectories had an increasing trend of risk during the time; still, this rising trend was disappeared after removing the effect of increasing age. Upon a median 8.4 years follow-up, 146 CVD events occurred. After adjusting for age, the medium-medium and high-high trajectories had a 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.46-3.97) and 3.46-fold (95% CI 1.56-7.70) risk of CVD compared with the low-low group, respectively. In all trajectory groups, unfavorable increasing in fasting glucose, but favorable raising in HDL and decreasing smoking and total cholesterol happened over time.
conclusionsAlthough the risk trajectories were stable during the time, different risk factors varied differently in each trajectory. These findings emphasize the importance of attention to each risk factor separately and implementing preventive strategies that optimize CVD risk factors besides the CVD risk.
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