ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2022
Reference Case Methods for Expert Elicitation in Health Care Decision Making.
Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The Creation of a Weight of Evidence Scoring Database for Risk Factors for Adverse Impacts to Birth Outcomes Using Expert Elicitation.Birth defects research · 2026Pooled it
- The Use of Expert Elicitation among Computational Modeling Studies in Health Research: A Systematic Review.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022Pooled it
- Remote, bivariate prior elicitation for a Bayesian non-inferiority randomized controlled trial.Trials · 2026Trial
- General-Purpose Methods for Simulating Survival Data for Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023Trial
- Estimating Long-Term Organ Damage Risk in Patients with Congenital Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura Receiving Recombinant ADAMTS13 Prophylaxis: A Structured Expert Elicitation Study.Advances in therapy · 2026Article
- Constructed value of information with iterative scoring and parametric uncertainty to identify management-relevant research priorities for a declining raptor species.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Improving the use of expert opinion in disease risk analysis for conservation translocations.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Expert opinion in decision-making: a systematic review of methods and the INTEGRITY framework for incorporating expert consultation into research.Research integrity and peer review · 2026Article
- An Early-Stage Decision-Analytic Health Economic Model of Above Cuff Vocalization: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Resolve?Critical care explorations · 2025Article
- Assessing the value for money, from a policy maker perspective, of 24 randomised controlled trial designs for an online weight maintenance guided self-help intervention: an expected value of sample information analysis.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2025Article
- Defining Biological and Clinical Plausibility: The DICSA Framework for Protocolized Assessment in Survival Extrapolations Across Therapeutic Areas.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Review
- Co-designing a Structured Expert Elicitation with Clinicians to Enhance Health Care Decision Making in Exercise Oncology.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Good Practices for Health Technology Assessment Guideline Development: A Report of the Health Technology Assessment International, HTAsiaLink, and ISPOR Special Task Force.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2025Article
- Development of the PICCOTEAM Reference Case for Economic Evaluation of Precision Medicine.International journal of health policy and management · 2025Article
- Enhancing public health infectious disease response through the Australian Pathogen Genomics program (AusPathoGen): evaluation protocol.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Assessing the Value of New Antimicrobials: Evaluations of Cefiderocol and Ceftazidime-Avibactam to Inform Delinked Payments by the NHS in England.Applied health economics and health policy · 2025Article
- An Evaluation of an Algorithm for the Selection of Flexible Survival Models for Cancer Immunotherapies: Pass or Fail?PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
- Preparing early economic evaluations for the development and management of health service interventions.International journal of technology assessment in health care · 2024Article
- Methods to Quantify the Importance of Parameters for Model Updating and Distributional Adaptation.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Article
- Modified Delphi panel consensus recommendations for management of severe aplastic anemia.Blood advances · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe evidence used to inform health care decision making (HCDM) is typically uncertain. In these situations, the experience of experts is essential to help decision makers reach a decision. Structured expert elicitation (referred to as elicitation) is a quantitative process to capture experts' beliefs. There is heterogeneity in the existing elicitation methodology used in HCDM, and it is not clear if existing guidelines are appropriate for use in this context. In this article, we seek to establish reference case methods for elicitation to inform HCDM.
methodsWe collated the methods available for elicitation using reviews and critique. In addition, we conducted controlled experiments to test the accuracy of alternative methods. We determined the suitability of the methods choices for use in HCDM according to a predefined set of principles for elicitation in HCDM, which we have also generated. We determined reference case methods for elicitation in HCDM for health technology assessment (HTA).
resultsIn almost all methods choices available for elicitation, we found a lack of empirical evidence supporting recommendations. Despite this, it is possible to define reference case methods for HTA. The reference methods include a focus on gathering experts with substantive knowledge of the quantities being elicited as opposed to those trained in probability and statistics, eliciting quantities that the expert might observe directly, and individual elicitation of beliefs, rather than solely consensus methods. It is likely that there are additional considerations for decision makers in health care outside of HTA.
conclusionsThe reference case developed here allows the use of different methods, depending on the decision-making setting. Further applied examples of elicitation methods would be useful. Experimental evidence comparing methods should be generated.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.