ArticlePLoS computational biology2021
An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Gambling on an empty stomach: Hunger modulates preferences for learned but not described risks.Brain and behavior · 2023Trial
- Environmental uncertainty shapes human effort learning.PLoS biology · 2026Article
- Habenula-ventral tegmental area functional coupling and risk aversion in humans.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Reward circuit local field potential modulations precede risk taking.Brain : a journal of neurology · 2025Article
- Experience-based risk taking is primarily shaped by prior learning rather than by decision-making.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Risk-Taking Is Associated with Decreased Subjective Value Signals and Increased Prediction Error Signals in the Hot Columbia Card Task.The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience · 2024Article
- Dopamine encoding of novelty facilitates efficient uncertainty-driven exploration.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Striatal GABA levels correlate with risk sensitivity in monetary loss.Frontiers in neuroscience · 2024Article
- Decision-Making, Pro-variance Biases and Mood-Related Traits.Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2024Article
- Article
- Uncertainty-guided learning with scaled prediction errors in the basal ganglia.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Reward prediction errors (RPEs) and risk preferences have two things in common: both can shape decision making behavior, and both are commonly associated with dopamine. RPEs drive value learning and are thought to be represented in the phasic release of striatal dopamine. Risk preferences bias choices towards or away from uncertainty; they can be manipulated with drugs that target the dopaminergic system. Based on the common neural substrate, we hypothesize that RPEs and risk preferences are linked on the level of behavior as well. Here, we develop this hypothesis theoretically and test it empirically. First, we apply a recent theory of learning in the basal ganglia to predict how RPEs influence risk preferences. We find that positive RPEs should cause increased risk-seeking, while negative RPEs should cause risk-aversion. We then test our behavioral predictions using a novel bandit task in which value and risk vary independently across options. Critically, conditions are included where options vary in risk but are matched for value. We find that our prediction was correct: participants become more risk-seeking if choices are preceded by positive RPEs, and more risk-averse if choices are preceded by negative RPEs. These findings cannot be explained by other known effects, such as nonlinear utility curves or dynamic learning rates.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.