ArticleJournal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology2022
Are there excess fetal deaths attributable to waterborne lead exposure during the Flint Water Crisis? Evidence from bio-kinetic model predictions and Vital Records.
Article in Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Early-Life Lead Exposure and Male Longevity: Evidence from Historical Municipal Water Systems.Explorations in economic history · 2025Article
- Heavy Metal Contamination: Sources, Health Impacts, and Sustainable Mitigation Strategies with Insights from Nigerian Case Studies.F1000Research · 2025Review
- Extending Regulatory Biokinetic Lead Models towards Food Safety: Evaluation of Consumer Baby Food Contribution to Infant Blood Lead Levels and Variability.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Experiences of the Flint Water Crisis Among Reproductive-Age Michigan Women in Communities Outside of Flint: Differences by Race and Ethnicity.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2023Article
- A review of important heavy metals toxicity with special emphasis on nephrotoxicity and its management in cattle.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Review
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundFlint, Michigan had elevated water lead (Pb) levels during the 2014-15 Flint Water Crisis (FWC) and reports claim the exposures caused excess fetal deaths.
objectiveTo model the likelihood of excess fetal deaths occurring from FWC lead exposure and compare results to Vital Records.
methodsWe used an established bio-kinetic model to predict relative blood lead trends in pregnant women from characteristic exposure to 90th percentile water lead levels (WLLs), and another established model to then estimate characteristic miscarriage (<20 gestation weeks) odds ratios (OR) in Flint (2011-17). For comparison, we made similar predictions for exposures during (1) Washington DC's worst water lead crisis year (2001), (2) Flint "Resident Zero" home with anomalously high WLLs, and (3) 19th century lead-based abortifacients. Data on stillbirths (≥20 gestation weeks) and total fertility rates were obtained from the State of Michigan.
resultsThe models predicted that pregnant women drinking water with representative 90th percentile WLLs had a miscarriage OR during the worst FWC period (June-August 2014) of 1.21 (95% CI = 1.02,1.60), versus 1.66 (95% CI = 1.07, 3.56) during a time of high water lead 3 years before the FWC and 1.00 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.01) post-FWC. The corresponding predicted OR in late-2001 for Washington D.C. when higher fetal death rates were statistically associated with very high WLLs was 3.01 (95% CI = 1.16, 16.23). No apparent differences were revealed in overall and race-specific stillbirth rates before, during, or after the FWC. Total fertility rates dropped 6.8% during the FWC (April 2014-October 2015 versus April 2012-October 2013), but this is now revealed to be within the normal annual variation (-9.4% to +15%) observed post-FWC when residents were protected from water lead exposure. SIGNIFICANCE: Neither model simulations nor Vital Records data are consistent with the hypothesis that there was an uptick in fetal deaths or decreased fertility attributable to water lead exposure during the FWC.
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