Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34265006›Full record

ArticlePloS one2021

Predicting performance in 4 x 200-m freestyle swimming relay events.

Paul Pao-Yen Wu, Toktam Babaei, Michael O'Shea, Kerrie Mengersen, Christopher Drovandi, Katie E McGibbon, David B Pyne, Lachlan J G Mitchell, Mark A Osborne

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
0.7field-weighted citation impact, top 34% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Performance indicators in women's and men's biathlon relay.BMC sports science, medicine & rehabilitation · 2025
    Article
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Paul Pao-Yen WuSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5960-8203
Toktam BabaeiSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Michael O'SheaSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1547-6242
Kerrie MengersenSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Christopher DrovandiSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Katie E McGibbonQueensland Academy of Sport, Nathan, QLD, Australia.
David B PyneUniversity of Canberra Research Institute for Sport and Exercise, Bruce, ACT, Australia.
Lachlan J G MitchellQueensland Academy of Sport, Nathan, QLD, Australia.
Mark A OsborneSchool of Human Movement & Nutrition Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Queensland University of Technology · AUQueensland Academy of Sport · AUThe University of Queensland · AUUniversity of Canberra · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimThe aim was to predict and understand variations in swimmer performance between individual and relay events, and develop a predictive model for the 4x200-m swimming freestyle relay event to help inform team selection and strategy. DATA AND

methodsRace data for 716 relay finals (4 x 200-m freestyle) from 14 international competitions between 2010-2018 were analysed. Individual 200-m freestyle season best time for the same year was located for each swimmer. Linear regression and machine learning was applied to 4 x 200-m swimming freestyle relay events.

resultsCompared to the individual event, the lowest ranked swimmer in the team (-0.62 s, CI = [-0.94, -0.30]) and American swimmers (-0.48 s [-0.89, -0.08]) typically swam faster 200-m times in relay events. Random forest models predicted gold, silver, bronze and non-medal with 100%, up to 41%, up to 63%, and 93% sensitivity, respectively. DISCUSSION: Team finishing position was strongly associated with the differential time to the fastest team (mean decrease in Gini (MDG) when this variable was omitted = 31.3), world rankings of team members (average ranking MDG of 18.9), and the order of swimmers (MDG = 6.9). Differential times are based on the sum of individual swimmer's season's best times, and along with world rankings, reflect team strength. In contrast, the order of swimmers reflects strategy. This type of analysis could assist coaches and support staff in selecting swimmers and team orders for relay events to enhance the likelihood of success.

Indexed as

Athletic PerformanceSwimmingFemaleHumansMachine LearningMale

Identifiers

PMID34265006
PMCPMC8282077
OpenAlexW3178160938

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.