Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34262986›Full record

ArticleOpen forum infectious diseases2021

Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050.

Houssein H Ayoub, Ibtihel Amara, Susanne F Awad, Ryosuke Omori, Hiam Chemaitelly, Laith J Abu-Raddad

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Article in Open forum infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Houssein H AyoubDepartment of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Ibtihel AmaraInfectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar.
Susanne F AwadInfectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar.
Ryosuke OmoriDivision of Bioinformatics, Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan.
Hiam ChemaitellyInfectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar.
Laith J Abu-RaddadInfectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWe analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States.

methodsA population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

resultsOver 1950-2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15-49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by 2020 and 600 000 by 2050. Women were disproportionately affected, averaging 75% higher seroprevalence, 95% higher incidence rate, and 71% higher annual number of infections. In 2020, 78% of infections were acquired by those 15-34 years of age.

conclusionsThe epidemic has undergone a major transition over a century, with the greatest impact in those 15-34 years of age. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding >600 000 new infections every year.

Indexed as

genital herpesgenital ulcer diseaseherpes simplex virusHSV-2incidencemathematical modelneonatal herpesprevalence

Identifiers

PMID34262986
PMCPMC8274361

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.