Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34261439›Full record

ArticleBMC medical research methodology2021

Absolute mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients: the Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study.

Hamid Reza Marateb, Maja von Cube, Ramin Sami, Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard, Marjan Mansourian, Babak Amra, Forogh Soltaninejad, Mojgan Mortazavi, Peyman Adibi, Nilufar Khademi and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Hamid Reza MaratebBiomedical Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran. h.marateb@eng.ui.ac.ir.
Maja von CubeInstitute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
Ramin SamiDepartment of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Shaghayegh Haghjooy JavanmardApplied Physiology Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Marjan MansourianBiomedical Engineering Research Centre (CREB), Automatic Control Department (ESAII), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-Barcelona Tech (UPC)Building H, Floor 4, Av. Diagonal 647, 08028, Barcelona, Spain. marjan.mansourian@upc.edu.
Babak AmraBamdad Respiratory Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Forogh SoltaninejadThe Respiratory Research Center, Pulmonary Division, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Mojgan MortazaviIsfahan Kidney Diseases Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Peyman AdibiIsfahan Gastroenterology and Hepatology Research Center (lGHRC), Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Nilufar KhademiSchool of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Nastaran Sadat HosseiniSchool of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Arash ToghyaniSchool of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Razieh HassannejadIsfahan Cardiovascular Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Miquel Angel MañanasBiomedical Engineering Research Centre (CREB), Automatic Control Department (ESAII), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-Barcelona Tech (UPC)Building H, Floor 4, Av. Diagonal 647, 08028, Barcelona, Spain.
Harald BinderInstitute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
Martin WolkewitzInstitute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.

Funding

H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (TECNIOspring PLUS) 712949The Agency for Business Competitiveness of the Government of Catalonia TECSPR18-1-0017
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlready at hospital admission, clinicians require simple tools to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality. Such tools can significantly improve resource allocation and patient management within hospitals. From the statistical point of view, extended time-to-event models are required to account for competing risks (discharge from hospital) and censoring so that active cases can also contribute to the analysis.

methodsWe used the hospital-based open Khorshid COVID Cohort (KCC) study with 630 COVID-19 patients from Isfahan, Iran. Competing risk methods are used to develop a death risk chart based on the following variables, which can simply be measured at hospital admission: sex, age, hypertension, oxygen saturation, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. The area under the receiver operator curve was used to assess accuracy concerning discrimination between patients discharged alive and dead.

resultsCause-specific hazard regression models show that these baseline variables are associated with both death, and discharge hazards. The risk chart reflects the combined results of the two cause-specific hazard regression models. The proposed risk assessment method had a very good accuracy (AUC = 0.872 [CI 95%: 0.835-0.910]).

conclusionsThis study aims to improve and validate a personalized mortality risk calculator based on hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The risk assessment of patient mortality provides physicians with additional guidance for making tough decisions.

Indexed as

COVID-19Cohort StudiesHospitalizationHospital MortalityHumansIranRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSARS-CoV-2Cause-specific hazard regressionCOVID-19MortalityPrognosisRisk assessmentRisk chart

Identifiers

PMID34261439
PMCPMC8278186

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.