ArticleAIDS (London, England)2021
Inferring population HIV incidence trends from surveillance data of recent HIV infection among HIV testing clients.
Article in AIDS (London, England), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Pooled it
- Recent HIV infections and associated risk factors among newly diagnosed individuals in South Korea (2016-2023).Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Recent infection testing to inform HIV prevention responses and surveillance in a programme context: lessons from implementation within a nationally scaled female sex worker programme in Zimbabwe.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- Impact of voluntary testing on infectious disease epidemiology: A game theoretic approach.PloS one · 2023Article
- Geospatial Transmission Hotspots of Recent HIV Infection - Malawi, October 2019-March 2020.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 7 institutions in 6 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMeasuring recent HIV infections from routine surveillance systems could allow timely and granular monitoring of HIV incidence patterns. We evaluated the relationship of two recent infection indicators with alternative denominators to true incidence patterns.
methodsWe used a mathematical model of HIV testing behaviours, calibrated to population-based surveys and HIV testing services programme data, to estimate the number of recent infections diagnosed annually from 2010 to 2019 in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, and Mozambique. We compared two different denominators to interpret recency data: those at risk of HIV acquisition (HIV-negative tests and recent infections) and all people testing HIV positive. Sex and age-specific longitudinal trends in both interpretations were then compared with modelled trends in HIV incidence, testing efforts and HIV positivity among HIV testing services clients.
resultsOver 2010-2019, the annual proportion of the eligible population tested increased in all countries, while positivity decreased. The proportion of recent infections among those at risk of HIV acquisition decreased, similar to declines in HIV incidence among adults (≥15 years old). Conversely, the proportion of recent infections among HIV-positive tests increased. The female-to-male ratio of the proportion testing recent among those at risk was closer to 1 than the true incidence sex ratio.
conclusionThe proportion of recent infections among those at risk of HIV acquisition is more indicative of HIV incidence than the proportion among HIV-positive tests. However, interpreting the observed patterns as surrogate measures for incidence patterns may still be confounded by different HIV testing rates between population groups or over time.
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