ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2021
The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Borrowing Data From Other Populations to Forecast Epidemic Size.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Study on the differentiated impact of climate change on plague epidemics in Northern and Southern China, 1912-1949.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Article
- Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective.Biology · 2022Article
- The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Modern plague outbreaks exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. By contrast, the seasonality of historical outbreaks and its drivers has not been studied systematically. Here, we investigate the seasonal pattern, the epidemic peak timing and growth rates, and the association with latitude, temperature, and precipitation using a large, novel dataset of plague- and all-cause mortality during the Second Pandemic in Europe and the Mediterranean. We show that epidemic peak timing followed a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing. Based on modern temperature data, the predicted epidemic growth of all outbreaks was positive between 11.7°C and 21.5°C with a maximum around 17.3°C. Hence, our study provides evidence that the growth of plague epidemics across the whole study region depended on similar absolute temperature thresholds. Here, we present a systematic analysis of the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and we show consistent evidence for a temperature-related process influencing the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague epidemics.
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