ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021
Integrated vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions based strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a case study: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Retrospective analysis of age-specific non-pharmaceutical interventions on wild-type SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Impact of kindergarten structures on the dynamics of hand, foot, and mouth disease and the effects of intervention strategies: an agent-based modeling study.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Reconstruction of incidence reporting rate for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2: how often areVirus evolution · 2024Article
- Multiple cohort study of hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 in-host infection dynamics: Parameter estimates, identifiability, sensitivity and the eclipse phase profile.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- COVID-19 Vaccination and Healthcare Demand.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Mathematical modelling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in British Columbia: An age-structured model with time-dependent contact rates.Epidemics · 2022Article
- The impact of vaccination on the spread of COVID-19: Studying by a mathematical model.Physica A · 2022Article
- Characteristics of the Third COVID-19 Pandemic Wave with Special Focus on Socioeconomic Inequalities in Morbidity, Mortality and the Uptake of COVID-19 Vaccination in Hungary.Journal of personalized medicine · 2022Article
- A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments.PloS one · 2022Article
- Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study.PloS one · 2022Article
- Article
- Integrated vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions based strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a case study: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Article
- Observational
- Article
- Potential impact of introducing vaccines against COVID-19 under supply and uptake constraints in France: A modelling study.PloS one · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Recently, two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine products have been authorized in Canada. It is of crucial importance to model an integrated/combined package of non-pharmaceutical (physical/social distancing) and pharmaceutical (immunization) public health control measures. A modified epidemiological, compartmental SIR model was used and fit to the cumulative COVID-19 case data for the province of Ontario, Canada, from 8 September 2020 to 8 December 2020. Different vaccine roll-out strategies were simulated until 75% of the population was vaccinated, including a no-vaccination scenario. We compete these vaccination strategies with relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were supposed to remain enforced and began to be relaxed on 31 January, 31 March or 1 May 2021. Based on projections from the data and long-term extrapolation of scenarios, relaxing the public health measures implemented by re-opening too early would cause any benefits of vaccination to be lost by increasing case numbers, increasing the effective reproduction number above 1 and thus increasing the risk of localized outbreaks. If relaxation is, instead, delayed and 75% of the Ontarian population gets vaccinated by the end of the year, re-opening can occur with very little risk. Relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions by re-opening and vaccine deployment is a careful balancing act. Our combination of model projections from data and simulation of different strategies and scenarios, can equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with projections concerning the COVID-19 epidemiological trend, helping them in the decision-making process.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.