Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34245814›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of infection control2021

Impact of visitation and cohorting policies to shield residents from covid-19 spread in care homes: an agent-based model.

Le Khanh Ngan Nguyen, Susan Howick, Dennis McLafferty, Gillian Hopkins Anderson, Sahaya Josephine Pravinkumar, Robert Van Der Meer, Itamar Megiddo

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of infection control, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
    Pooled it
  2. Evaluating Nurse Conscientious Objection: Application of a Novel Framework.HEC forum : an interdisciplinary journal on hospitals' ethical and legal issues · 2026
    Article
  3. Nursing home visitor policy and COVID-19 infection rates.American journal of infection control · 2025
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Residential Environment Assessment by Older Adults in Nursing Homes during COVID-19 Outbreak.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  10. Managing the Impact of COVID-19 in Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities: An Update.Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · 2022
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Le Khanh Ngan NguyenDepartment of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom. Electronic address: nguyen-le-khanh-ngan@strath.ac.uk.
Susan HowickDepartment of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Dennis McLaffertyAdult Services, Health & Social Care North Lanarkshire, Motherwell, United Kingdom.
Gillian Hopkins AndersonDepartment of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Sahaya Josephine PravinkumarDepartment of Public Health, National Health Services Lanarkshire, Kirklands Hospital, Bothwell, United Kingdom.
Robert Van Der MeerDepartment of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Itamar MegiddoDepartment of Management Science, Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThis study examines the impact of visitation and cohorting policies as well as the care home population size upon the spread of COVID-19 and the risk of outbreak occurrence in this setting.

methodsAgent-based modelling

resultsThe likelihood of the presence of an outbreak in a care home is associated with the care home population size. Cohorting of residents and staff into smaller, self-contained units reduces the spread of COVID-19. Restricting the number of visitors to the care home to shield its residents does not significantly impact the cumulative number of infected residents and risk of outbreak occurrence in most scenarios. Only when the community prevalence where staff live is considerably lower than the prevalence where visitors live (the former prevalence is less than or equal to 30% of the latter), relaxing visitation increases predicted infections much more significantly than it does in other scenarios. Maintaining a low infection probability per resident-visitor contact helps reduce the effect of allowing more visitors into care homes.

conclusionsOur model predictions suggest that cohorting is effective in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in care homes. However, according to predictions shielding residents in care homes is not as effective as predicted in a number of studies that have modelled shielding of vulnerable population in the wider communities.

Indexed as

COVID-19Nursing HomesVisitors to PatientsDisease OutbreaksHumansPolicyAgent-based modelsCare homesCohortingCOVID-19Long term careVisitation

Identifiers

PMID34245814
PMCPMC8264278

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.