Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34245711›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2021

Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study.

Felipe J Colón-González, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Adrian M Tompkins, Henrik Sjödin, Alejandro Casallas, Joacim Rocklöv, Cyril Caminade, Rachel Lowe

Erratum issued Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. It is linked to trial NCT06915285 (Analyzing the Performance of Automated Software in the Identification of Malarial Retinopathy in Digital Retinal Images of Cerebral Malaria Patients), which is not on this map. Cited by 203 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
203citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
62.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06915285 completednot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Analyzing the Performance of Automated Software in the Identification of Malarial Retinopathy in Digital Retinal Images of Cerebral Malaria Patients

TypeinterventionalSponsorVisionQuest Biomedical LLCRan2022 to 2024Enrolled834ConditionsCerebral Malaria, Malarial RetinopathyArmsAutomated software for malarial retinopathy detection
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

203 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 446 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Immunogenicity, Safety, and Efficacy of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine in Children and Adolescents: An Analysis by Age Group.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025
    Trial
  7. Dengue virus infection.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2026
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143 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Felipe J Colón-GonzálezCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. Electronic address: felipe.colon@lshtm.ac.uk.
Maquins Odhiambo SeweDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Adrian M TompkinsAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy.
Henrik SjödinDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Alejandro CasallasAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy.
Joacim RocklövDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.
Cyril CaminadeDepartment of Livestock and one Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Rachel LoweCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) · ITUmeå University · SEUniversity Hospital Heidelberg · DEUniversity of Liverpool · GB

Funding

Department of Health
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.

methodsUsing a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways.

findingsWe show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas.

interpretationRising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission.

fundingUK Space Agency, Royal Society, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Swedish Research Council.

Indexed as

Hot TemperatureMalariaAnimalsCitiesClimate ChangeDisease OutbreaksHumans

Identifiers

PMID34245711
PMCPMC8280459
OpenAlexW3182114573

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.