Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34237771›Full record

ReviewNature2021

After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19.

Amalio Telenti, Ann Arvin, Lawrence Corey, Davide Corti, Michael S Diamond, Adolfo García-Sastre, Robert F Garry, Edward C Holmes, Phillip S Pang, Herbert W Virgin

Open access · bronzeAbstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 232 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
232citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
25.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

232 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 441 citations in OpenAlex.

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172 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 8 institutions in 4 countries.

Amalio TelentiVir Biotechnology, San Francisco, CA, USA. atelenti@vir.bio.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6290-7677
Ann ArvinVir Biotechnology, San Francisco, CA, USA. aarvin@vir.bio.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5404-1498
Lawrence CoreyVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA. lcorey@fredhutch.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2179-2436
Davide CortiHumabs Biomed SA, a subsidiary of Vir Biotechnology, Bellinzona, Switzerland. dcorti@vir.bio.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5797-1364
Michael S DiamondDepartment of Pathology and Immunology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA. mdiamond@wustl.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8791-3165
Adolfo García-SastreDepartment of Microbiology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA. adolfo.garcia-sastre@mssm.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6551-1827
Robert F GarryDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA. rfgarry@tulane.edu.
Edward C HolmesMarie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, School of Life and Environmental Sciences and School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. edward.holmes@sydney.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9596-3552
Phillip S PangVir Biotechnology, San Francisco, CA, USA. ppang@vir.bio.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8811-9801
Herbert W VirginVir Biotechnology, San Francisco, CA, USA. svirgin@vir.bio.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8580-7628
VIR Biotechnology (United States) · USWashington University in St. Louis · USCape Town HVTN Immunology Laboratory / Hutchinson Centre Research Institute of South Africa · ZAScripps Research Institute · USThe University of Sydney · AUTisch Hospital · USTulane University · USVir Biotechnology (Switzerland) · CH

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association that the virus will establish with the human population and, in particular, whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fuelled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection and re-entries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions; we outline these and propose a way forward.

Indexed as

PandemicsAnimalsCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesEvolution, MolecularHumansImmune EvasionImmunization ProgramsInfluenza, HumanSARS-CoV-2Time FactorsCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID34237771
OpenAlexW3179152893

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.