Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34237090›Full record

ArticlePloS one2021

Clinical and economic impact of universal varicella vaccination in Norway: A modeling study.

Manjiri Pawaskar, Colleen Burgess, Mathew Pillsbury, Torbjørn Wisløff, Elmira Flem

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Manjiri PawaskarCenter for Observational and Real-World Evidence (CORE), Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, United States of America.
Colleen BurgessCenter for Observational and Real-World Evidence (CORE), Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, United States of America.
Mathew PillsburyCenter for Observational and Real-World Evidence (CORE), Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, United States of America.
Torbjørn WisløffDepartment of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.ORCID 0000-0002-7539-082X
Elmira FlemMSD, Drammen, Norway.ORCID 0000-0002-5099-1960
Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA (United States) · USMSD (Norway) · NOUiT The Arctic University of Norway · NO

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNorway has not implemented universal varicella vaccination, despite the considerable clinical and economic burden of varicella disease.

methodsAn existing dynamic transmission model of varicella infection was calibrated to age-specific seroprevalence rates in Norway. Six two-dose vaccination strategies were considered, consisting of combinations of two formulations each of a monovalent varicella vaccine (Varivax® or Varilrix®) and a quadrivalent vaccine against measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (ProQuad® or PriorixTetra®), with the first dose given with a monovalent vaccine at age 15 months, and the second dose with either a monovalent or quadrivalent vaccine at either 18 months, 7 or 11 years. Costs were considered from the perspectives of both the health care system and society. Quality-adjusted life-years saved and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios relative to no vaccination were calculated. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of vaccine efficacy, price, the costs of a lost workday and of inpatient and outpatient care, vaccination coverage, and discount rate.

resultsIn the absence of varicella vaccination, the annual incidence of natural varicella is estimated to be 1,359 per 100,000 population, and the cumulative numbers of varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over 50 years are projected to be 1.81 million, 10,161, and 61, respectively. Universal varicella vaccination is projected to reduce the natural varicella incidence rate to 48-59 per 100,000 population, depending on the vaccination strategy, and to reduce varicella outpatient cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 75-85%, 67-79%, and 75-79%, respectively. All strategies were cost-saving, with the most cost-saving as two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 7 years (payer perspective) and two doses of Varivax® at 15 months and 18 months (societal perspective).

conclusionsAll modeled two-dose varicella vaccination strategies are projected to lead to substantial reductions in varicella disease and to be cost saving compared to no vaccination in Norway.

Indexed as

Models, ImmunologicalChickenpox VaccineCost-Benefit AnalysisHerpes ZosterHospitalizationHumansIncidenceNorwaySeroepidemiologic StudiesVaccinationChickenpox Vaccine

Identifiers

PMID34237090
PMCPMC8266049
OpenAlexW3181500921

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.