Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34235453›Full record

ArticleCritical care explorations2021

Generalization in Clinical Prediction Models: The Blessing and Curse of Measurement Indicator Variables.

Joseph Futoma, Morgan Simons, Finale Doshi-Velez, Rishikesan Kamaleswaran

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Critical care explorations, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 16% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Observational
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Machine learning in rare disease.Nature methods · 2023
    Review
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Joseph FutomaSchool of Engineeri.ng & Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.
Morgan SimonsDepartment of Medicine, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY.
Finale Doshi-VelezSchool of Engineeri.ng & Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.
Rishikesan KamaleswaranDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA.
NYU Langone Health · USUniversity of Tennessee Health Science Center · US

Funding

Machine learning for data-driven subtyping of major depressionR56MH115187 · NIMH · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI PERLIS, ROY H. · 2018 to 2018
$596k
NIMH NIH HHS R56 MH115187
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveSpecific factors affecting generalizability of clinical prediction models are poorly understood. Our main objective was to investigate how measurement indicator variables affect external validity in clinical prediction models for predicting onset of vasopressor therapy.

designWe fit logistic regressions on retrospective cohorts to predict vasopressor onset using two classes of variables: seemingly objective clinical variables (vital signs and laboratory measurements) and more subjective variables denoting recency of measurements.

settingThree cohorts from two tertiary-care academic hospitals in geographically distinct regions, spanning general inpatient and critical care settings. PATIENTS: Each cohort consisted of adult patients (age greater than or equal to 18 yr at time of hospitalization), with lengths of stay between 6 and 600 hours, and who did not receive vasopressors in the first 6 hours of hospitalization or ICU admission. Models were developed on each of the three derivation cohorts and validated internally on the derivation cohort and externally on the other two cohorts.

interventionsNone. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN

resultsThe prevalence of vasopressors was 0.9% in the general inpatient cohort and 12.4% and 11.5% in the two critical care cohorts. Models utilizing both classes of variables performed the best in-sample, with C-statistics for predicting vasopressor onset in 4 hours of 0.862 (95% CI, 0.844-0.879), 0.822 (95% CI, 0.793-0.852), and 0.889 (95% CI, 0.880-0.898). Models solely using the subjective variables denoting measurement recency had poor external validity. However, these practice-driven variables helped adjust for differences between the two hospitals and led to more generalizable models using clinical variables.

conclusionsWe developed and externally validated models for predicting the onset of vasopressors. We found that practice-specific features denoting measurement recency improved local performance and also led to more generalizable models if they are adjusted for during model development but discarded at validation. The role of practice-specific features such as measurement indicators in clinical prediction modeling should be carefully considered if the goal is to develop generalizable models.

Indexed as

decision support toolsexternal validitygeneralizabilitymachine learningstatistical modelingvasopressor therapy

Identifiers

PMID34235453
PMCPMC8238368
OpenAlexW3174101746

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.