ArticleBMJ open2021
Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Seasonality in Mortality and Health: Environmental and Demographic Perspectives.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Review
- Epidemiological features of seasonal influenza transmission among 11 climate zones in Chinese Mainland.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Warmer ambient air temperatures reduce nasal turbinate and brain infection, but increase lung inflammation in the K18-hACE2 mouse model of COVID-19.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Effects and Interaction of Meteorological Parameters on Influenza Incidence During 2010-2019 in Lanzhou, China.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics.
designWe conducted time-series analysis to estimate the seasonal amplitude before and after adjusting for temperature and/or influenza-like illness (ILI). Next, we applied linear mixed effect models to investigate the association of seasonal amplitudes with each indicator on prefecture-specific characteristics on climate, demographic and socioeconomic factors and adaptations.
setting47 prefectures in Japan
participantsDeaths for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease between 1999 and 2015. OUTCOME MEASURES: Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a measure of seasonal amplitude).
resultsThe nationwide unadjusted-PTRs for all-cause, circulatory and respiratory mortality were 1.29 (95% CIs: 1.28 to 1.31), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.48), respectively. These PTRs reduced substantially after adjusting for temperature but very little after a separate adjustment for ILI. Furthermore, seasonal amplitudes varied between prefectures. However, there was no strong evidence for the associations of PTR with the indicators on prefecture-specific characteristics.
conclusionsSeasonality of mortality is primarily driven by temperature in Japan. The spatial variation in seasonal amplitudes was not associated with prefecture-specific characteristics. Although further investigations are required to confirm our findings, this study can help us gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seasonality of mortality.
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