ArticleEarth's future2021
Trajectory Simulation and Prediction of COVID-19
Article in Earth's future, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Trajectory Simulation and Prediction of COVID-19Earth's future · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Natural and non-natural factors have combined effects on the trajectory of COVID-19 pandemic, but it is difficult to make them separate. To address this problem, a two-stepped methodology is proposed. First, a compound natural factor (CNF) model is developed via assigning weight to each of seven investigated natural factors, that is temperature, humidity, visibility, wind speed, barometric pressure, aerosol, and vegetation in order to show their coupling relationship with the COVID-19 trajectory. Onward, the empirical distribution based framework (EDBF) is employed to iteratively optimize the coupling relationship between trajectory and CNF to express the real interaction. In addition, the collected data is considered from the backdate, that is about 23 days-which contains 14-days incubation period and 9-days invalid human response time-due to the nonavailability of prior information about the natural spreading of virus without any human intervention(s), and also lag effects of the weather change and social interventions on the observed trajectory due to the COVID-19 incubation period; Second, the optimized CNF-plus-polynomial model is used to predict the future trajectory of COVID-19. Results revealed that aerosol and visibility show the higher contribution to transmission, wind speed to death, and humidity followed by barometric pressure dominate the recovery rates, respectively. Consequently, the average effect of environmental change to COVID-19 trajectory in China is minor in all variables, that is about -0.3%, +0.3%, and +0.1%, respectively. In this research, the response analysis of COVID-19 trajectory to the compound natural interactions presents a new prospect on the part of global pandemic trajectory to environmental changes.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.