ArticleSystem dynamics review
Behavioral dynamics of COVID-19: estimating underreporting, multiple waves, and adherence fatigue across 92 nations.
Article in System dynamics review. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
50 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Post-COVID syndrome prevalence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Estimating Hidden Population Size of COVID-19 using Respondent-Driven Sampling Method - A Systematic Review.Infectious disorders drug targets · 2024Pooled it
- Estimating the Underreporting of COVID-19 Burden in Selected Countries in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America in the Post-pandemic Era.Pulmonary therapy · 2026Article
- Faster Uptake, Slower Let-Down: Asymmetric Community Responses to Changing Risks During a Pandemic.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026Article
- Nowcasting epidemic trends using hospital- and community-based virologic test data.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Identifying delayed human response to external risks: an econometric analysis of mobility change during a pandemic.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Seroepidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection in Blood Donors from Western Romania, August-September 2023.Microorganisms · 2025Article
- Optimizing quarantine in pandemic control: a multi-stage SEIQR modeling approach to COVID-19 transmission dynamics.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Simulation-based validation of a method to detect changes in SARS-CoV-2 reinfection risk.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Impact of adherence and stringency on the effectiveness of lockdown measures: A modelling study.PloS one · 2025Article
- Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- An Open One-Step RT-qPCR for SARS-CoV-2 detection.PloS one · 2024Article
- A Risk Model for 28-Day in-Hospital Mortality in 173 COVID-19 Patients Admission to ICU: A Retrospective Study.Infection and drug resistance · 2024Article
- Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Strengthening a Weak Link: Transparency of Causal Loop Diagrams, Current State and Recommendation.System dynamics review · 2023Article
- Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Predictors and moderators of COVID-19 pandemic fatigue in Hong Kong.Journal of infection and public health · 2023Article
- Perspectives of (/memorandum for) systems thinking on COVID-19 pandemic and pathology.Journal of evaluation in clinical practice · 2023Article
- Leveraging Serosurveillance and Postmortem Surveillance to Quantify the Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Africa.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity. We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations with reliable testing data. Cumulative cases and deaths through 22 December 2020 are estimated to be 7.03 and 1.44 times official reports, yielding an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.51 percent, which has been declining over time. Absent adherence fatigue, cumulative cases would have been 47 percent lower. Scenarios through June 2021 show that modest improvement in responsiveness could reduce cases and deaths by about 14 percent, more than the impact of vaccinating half of the population by that date. Variations in responsiveness to risk explain two orders of magnitude difference in per-capita deaths despite reproduction numbers fluctuating around one across nations. A public online simulator facilitates scenario analysis over the coming months. © 2021 System Dynamics Society.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.