ArticleScientific reports2021
Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID-19 post-lockdown dynamics.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review.Physics of life reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Mechanics of pandemics.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Review
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the Basque Country: characterizing population immunity profile from 2020 to 2022.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Article
- Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccines for COVID-19 According to Sex, Comorbidity and Socioeconomic Status: A Population Study.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
- The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- The dynamics of novel corona virus disease via stochastic epidemiological model with vaccination.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A Spatial Kinetic Model of Crowd Evacuation Dynamics with Infectious Disease Contagion.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Case growth analysis to inform local response to COVID-19 epidemic in a diverse U.S community.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Correlated stochastic epidemic model for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with vaccination.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID-19 vaccines performance: A modeling study.Journal of advanced research · 2022Article
- Retrospective analysis of the application of CT scan in the emergency department to screen clinically asymptomatic COVID-19 before hospital admission.Emergency radiology · 2022Article
- Assessing the Transmissibility of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variants: From Delta to Omicron.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain.PloS one · 2022Article
- Urban COVID-19 endemism in Petrópolis: detection of an endemic focus by spatial analysis.Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publicaArticle
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7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an epidemic is used as a public health guiding tool to evaluate the course of the epidemic, with the evolution of r(t) being the reasoning behind tightening and relaxing control measures over time. Here we investigate critical fluctuations around the epidemiological threshold, resembling new waves, even when the community disease transmission rate [Formula: see text] is not significantly changing. Without loss of generality, we use simple models that can be treated analytically and results are applied to more complex models describing COVID-19 epidemics. Our analysis shows that, rather than the supercritical regime (infectivity larger than a critical value, [Formula: see text]) leading to new exponential growth of infection, the subcritical regime (infectivity smaller than a critical value, [Formula: see text]) with small import is able to explain the dynamic behaviour of COVID-19 spreading after a lockdown lifting, with [Formula: see text] hovering around its threshold value.
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