Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34226262›Full record

ArticleTobacco control2023

Exploring the gateway hypothesis of e-cigarettes and tobacco: a prospective replication study among adolescents in the Netherlands and Flanders.

Thomas Martinelli, Math J J M Candel, Hein de Vries, Reinskje Talhout, Vera Knapen, Constant P van Schayck, Gera E Nagelhout

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Tobacco control, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
47citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
7.1field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

47 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 88 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Pooled it
  5. Vaping-related lung disease: a narrative review.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026
    Review
  6. Observational
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  12. E-cigarette Use and Incident Cardiometabolic Conditions in the All of Us Research Program.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
    Article
  13. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Thomas MartinelliIVO, The Hague, The Netherlands martinelli@ivo.nl.ORCID 0000-0003-0055-5631
Math J J M CandelDepartment of Methodology and Statistics, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Hein de VriesDepartment of Health Promotion, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Reinskje TalhoutLaboratory for Health Protection Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Vera KnapenDepartment of Health Promotion, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Constant P van SchayckDepartment of Family Medicine, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Gera E NagelhoutIVO, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Maastricht University · NLNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment · NLTilburg University · NL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundStudies demonstrated that adolescent e-cigarette use is associated with subsequent tobacco smoking, commonly referred to as the

designThe longitudinal design included baseline (n=2839) and 6-month (n=1276) and 12-month (n=1025) follow-up surveys among a school-based cohort (mean age: 13.62). Ten high schools were recruited as a convenience sample. The analyses involved (1) associations of baseline e-cigarette use and subsequent tobacco smoking among never smokers; (2) associations of e-cigarette use frequency at baseline and tobacco smoking frequency at follow-up; and (3) the association of baseline tobacco smoking and subsequent e-cigarette use among non-users of e-cigarettes.

findingsConsistent with prior findings, baseline e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of tobacco smoking at 6-month (OR=1.89; 95% CI 1.05 to 3.37) and 12-month (OR=5.63; 95% CI 3.04 to 10.42) follow-ups. More frequent use of e-cigarettes at baseline was associated with more frequent smoking at follow-ups. Baseline tobacco smoking was associated with subsequent e-cigarette use (OR=3.10; 95% CI 1.58 to 6.06 at both follow-ups).

conclusionOur study replicated the positive relation between e-cigarette use and tobacco smoking in both directions for adolescents. This may mean that the gateway works in two directions, that e-cigarette and tobacco use share common risk factors, or that both mechanisms apply.

Indexed as

Adolescent BehaviorElectronic Nicotine Delivery SystemsVapingAdolescentHumansLongitudinal StudiesNetherlandsNicotianaProspective Studieselectronic nicotine delivery devicesharm reductionpublic policy

Identifiers

PMID34226262
PMCPMC9985733
OpenAlexW3178295146

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.