ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021
The burden of hand, foot, and mouth disease among children under different vaccination scenarios in China: a dynamic modelling study.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 40 citations in OpenAlex.
- Immunogenicity of trivalent DNA vaccine candidate encapsulated in Chitosan-TPP nanoparticles against EV-A71 and CV-A16.Nanomedicine (London, England) · 2024Article
- Trend of hand, foot and mouth disease before, during, and after China's COVID control policies in Zhejiang, China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Molecular epidemiology and phylodynamic analysis of enterovirus 71 in Beijing, China, 2009-2019.Virology journal · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the province level in mainland China, 2011-2018.PloS one · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common illness in young children. A monovalent vaccine has been developed in China protecting against enterovirus-71, bivalent vaccines preventing HFMD caused by two viruses are under development.
objectiveTo predict and compare the incidence of HFMD under different vaccination scenarios in China.
methodsWe developed a compartmental model to capture enterovirus transmission and the natural history of HFMD in children aged 0-5, and calibrated to reported cases in the same age-group from 2015 to 2018. We compared the following vaccination scenarios: different combinations of monovalent and bivalent vaccine; a program of constant vaccination to that of pulse vaccination prior to seasonal outbreaks.
resultsWe estimate 1,982,819, 2,258,846, 1,948,522 and 2,398,566 cases from 2015 to 2018. Increased coverage of monovalent vaccine from 0 to 80% is predicted to decrease the cases by 797,262 (49.1%). Use of bivalent vaccine at an 80% coverage level would decrease the cases by 828,560. Use of a 2.0× pulse vaccination for the bivalent vaccine in addition to 80% coverage would reduce cases by over one million. The estimated R
conclusionsOur results point to the benefit of bivalent vaccine and using a pulse vaccination in specific months over routine vaccination. Other ways to control HFMD include isolation of patients in the early stage of dissemination, more frequent hand-washing and ventilation, and better treatment options for patients.
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