ArticleEpidemics2021
Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting.
Article in Epidemics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions as implemented in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2025Pooled it
- Comparative effectiveness of contact tracing interventions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Pooled it
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2024Review
- Who We Test For: Aligning Relational and Public Health Responsibilities in COVID-19 Testing in Scotland.Medical anthropology · 2024Article
- Investigating the rise of Omicron variant through genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 infections in a highly vaccinated university population.Microbial genomics · 2024Article
- A Qualitative Evaluation of the Barriers and Enablers for Implementation of an Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Testing Service at the University of Nottingham: A Multi-Site Higher Education Setting in England.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number.Statistical methods in medical research · 2022Article
- Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a university outbreak setting and implications for public health planning.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in a University Community: Insights Into Tracking Variants, Transmission, and Spread of Gamma (P.1) Variant.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Screening for SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Students at the Medical University of Warsaw, Poland Between November 15 and December 10, 2021 Using a Single Lateral Flow Test, the Panbio™ COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2022Article
- A hybrid stochastic model and its Bayesian identification for infectious disease screening in a university campus with application to massive COVID-19 screening at the University of Liège.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- Safe university: a guide for open academic institutions through the pandemic.Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Estimating data-driven coronavirus disease 2019 mitigation strategies for safe university reopening.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Modeling for COVID-19 college reopening decisions: Cornell, a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Around 40% of school leavers in the UK attend university and individual universities generally host thousands of students each academic year. Bringing together these student communities during the COVID-19 pandemic may require strong interventions to control transmission. Prior modelling analyses of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within universities using compartmental modelling approaches suggest that outbreaks are almost inevitable. We constructed a network-based model to capture the interactions of a student population in different settings (housing, social and study). For a single academic term of a representative campus-based university, we ran a susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered type epidemic process, parameterised according to available estimates for SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the impact of: adherence to (or effectiveness of) isolation and test and trace measures; room isolation of symptomatic students; and supplementary mass testing. With all adhering to test, trace and isolation measures, we found that 22% (7%-41%) of the student population could be infected during the autumn term, compared to 69% (56%-76%) when assuming zero adherence to such measures. Irrespective of the adherence to isolation measures, on average a higher proportion of students resident on-campus became infected compared to students resident off-campus. Room isolation generated minimal benefits. Regular mass testing, together with high adherence to isolation and test and trace measures, could substantially reduce the proportion infected during the term compared to having no testing. Our findings suggest SARS-CoV-2 may readily transmit in a university setting if there is limited adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions and/or there are delays in receiving test results. Following isolation guidance and effective contact tracing curbed transmission and reduced the expected time an adhering student would spend in isolation.
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