Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34217663›Full record

Trial reportJACC. Clinical electrophysiology2021

Predictors of Major Atrial Fibrillation Endpoints in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute HCMR.

Christopher M Kramer, John P DiMarco, Paul Kolm, Carolyn Y Ho, Milind Y Desai, Raymond Y Kwong, Sarahfaye F Dolman, Patrice Desvigne-Nickens, Nancy Geller, Dong-Yun Kim and 26 more

Open access · greenAbstract readClinical Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in JACC. Clinical electrophysiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.4field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 39 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Atrial electrophysiology in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: current insights and knowledge gaps.Journal of interventional cardiac electrophysiology : an international journal of arrhythmias and pacing · 2026
    Review
  3. Article
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  11. Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: insights into pathophysiology and novel therapeutic strategies from clinical studies.The Egyptian heart journal : (EHJ) : official bulletin of the Egyptian Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Review
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  19. Article
  20. Reverse remodeling of left atrium assessed by cardiovascular magnetic resonance feature tracking in hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy after septal myectomy.Journal of cardiovascular magnetic resonance : official journal of the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

36 authors at 20 institutions in 5 countries.

Christopher M KramerUniversity of Virginia Health System, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA. Electronic address: ckramer@virginia.edu.
John P DiMarcoUniversity of Virginia Health System, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
Paul KolmMedStar Health Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Carolyn Y HoBrigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Milind Y DesaiCleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Raymond Y KwongBrigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Sarahfaye F DolmanMedStar Health Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Patrice Desvigne-NickensNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Nancy GellerNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Dong-Yun KimNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Martin S MaronTufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Evan AppelbaumMen's Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Michael Jerosch-HeroldBrigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Matthias G FriedrichMcGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Jeanette Schulz-MengerCharité Experimental Clinical Research Center and Helios Clinics Berlin-Buch, Berlin, Germany.
Stefan K PiechnikUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Masliza MahmodUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Daniel JacobyYale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
James WhiteUniversity of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Amedeo ChiribiriKing's College, London, United Kingdom.
Adam HelmsUniversity of Michigan, Anne Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Lubna ChoudhuryNorthwestern University, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Michelle MichelsErasmus University, Erasmus, the Netherlands.
William BradlowUniversity of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom.
Michael SalernoUniversity of Virginia Health System, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
Dana K DawsonUniversity of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
Jonathan W WeinsaftWeill Cornell Medicine, New York, New York, USA.
Colin BerryUniversity of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Sherif F NaguehMethodist Hospital, Houston, Texas, USA.
Chiara Buccarelli-DucciUniversity of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
Anjali OwensUniversity of Pennsylvania, Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Barbara CasadeiUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Hugh WatkinsUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
William S WeintraubMedStar Health Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Stefan NeubauerUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
HCMR Investigators
University of Oxford · GBBrigham and Women's Hospital · USMedStar Health · USNational Heart Lung and Blood Institute · USUniversity of Virginia Health System · USCleveland Clinic · USCornell University · USErasmus MC · NLHelios Hospital Berlin-Buch · DEKing's College London · GBMcGill University · CAMen's Health Boston · USMethodist Hospital · USNorthwestern University · USTufts Medical Center · USUniversity of Aberdeen · GBUniversity of Birmingham · GBUniversity of Bristol · GBUniversity of Calgary · CAUniversity of Glasgow · GB

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
Maternal Morbidity and Mortality: Risk Factors, Early Detection and Personalized InterventionUL1TR001409 · NCATS · GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY · PI GONDRE-LEWIS, MARJORIE C, MELLMAN, THOMAS A · 2015 to 2024
$37.8M
HCMR Novel Markers of Prognosis in Hypertrophic CardiomyopathyU01HL117006 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA · PI KRAMER, CHRISTOPHER M., NEUBAUER, STEFAN · 2013 to 2017
$14.5M
British Heart Foundation CH/12/3/29609British Heart Foundation PG/15/71/31731British Heart Foundation RG/18/9/33887Medical Research Council MR/N003403/1NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001409NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL117006
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesThis study sought to identify predictors of major clinically important atrial fibrillation endpoints in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

backgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a common morbidity associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The HCMR (Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Registry) trial is a prospective natural history study of 2,755 patients with HCM with comprehensive phenotyping.

methodsAll patients received yearly telephone follow-up. Major AF endpoints were defined as requiring electrical cardioversion, catheter ablation, hospitalization for >24 h, or clinical decisions to accept permanent AF. Penalized regression via elastic-net methodology identified the most important predictors of major AF endpoints from 46 variables. This was applied to 10 datasets, and the variables were ranked. Predictors that appeared in all 10 sets were then used in a Cox model for competing risks and analyzed as time to first event.

resultsData from 2,631 (95.5%) patients were available for analysis after exclusions. A total of 127 major AF endpoints events occurred in 96 patients over 33.3 ± 12.4 months. In the final model, age, body mass index (BMI), left atrial (LA) volume index, LA contractile percent (active contraction), moderate or severe mitral regurgitation (MR), and history of arrhythmia the most important. BMI, LA volume index, and LA contractile percent were age-dependent. Obesity was a stronger risk factor in younger patients. Increased LA volume, reduced LA contractile percent, and moderate or severe MR put middle-aged and older adult patients at increased risk.

conclusionsThe major predictors of major AF endpoints in HCM include older age, high BMI, moderate or severe MR, history of arrhythmia, increased LA volume, and reduced LA contractile percent. Prospective testing of a risk score based on these parameters may be warranted.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationCatheter AblationAgedHeart AtriaHumansMiddle AgedNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (U.S.)Prospective StudiesUnited Statesatrial fibrillationhypertrophic cardiomyopathyleft atriumMRI

Identifiers

PMID34217663
PMCPMC8605982
OpenAlexW3173965913

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.