ArticleEnvironmental health and preventive medicine2021
Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015.
Article in Environmental health and preventive medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Electrocardiogram abnormalities in residents in cold homes: a cross-sectional analysis of the nationwide Smart Wellness Housing survey in Japan.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2021Trial
- The Japanese Society of Hypertension Practical Consensus Guidelines for Seasonal Blood Pressure Management.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2026Article
- Warming temperatures increase close encounters between two top predator species via changes in spatial behaviour.Movement ecology · 2026Article
- Pandemic-associated disruption of seasonal mortality patterns in Lusaka, Zambia.BMJ global health · 2026Observational
- Seasonality in Mortality and Health: Environmental and Demographic Perspectives.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Review
- Seasonal Mortality and its Impact on Spatial Inequality in Life Expectancy Across Italy.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- Seasonality in mortality and its impact on life expectancy levels and trends across Europe.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2025Article
- Elderly vulnerability to temperature-related mortality risks in China.Science advances · 2025Article
- Impact of monthly air pollution and weather conditions on cardiorespiratory mortality in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Peculiar weather patterns effects on air pollution and COVID-19 spread in Tokyo metropolis.Environmental research · 2023Observational
- Development and validation of ischemic heart disease and stroke prognostic models using large-scale real-world data from Japan.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Global Population Exposure to Extreme Temperatures and Disease Burden.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAmbient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate.
methodsDaily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics.
resultsThe temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively.
conclusionSeasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.
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