ArticleMathematical biosciences2021
Assessment of effective mitigation and prediction of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany using demographic information and spatial resolution.
Article in Mathematical biosciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- MEmilio: a high performance Modular EpideMIcs simuLatIOn software for multi-scale and comparative simulations of infectious disease dynamics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Coupled epidemiological and wastewater modeling at the urban scale: A case study for Munich.iScience · 2026Article
- Optimal strategies for fair vaccine allocation: integrating non-pharmaceutical interventions, regional quarantine, and social challenges in epidemic control.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2026Article
- Estimating the effect of self-protection on transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany in 2021: a modelling study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge towards reliable and immediate pandemic response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Changing socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in Germany, March 2020 through May 2022: an ecological study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insight on the individual scale: A contribution to green computing.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Dynamic Contact Networks in Confined Spaces: Synthesizing Micro-Level Encounter Patterns through Human Mobility Models from Real-World Data.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Mass testing to end the COVID-19 public health threat.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2023Article
- Characteristics of hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection during successive waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in a reference hospital in Spain.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in Germany.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
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- Inferring the effect of interventions on COVID-19 transmission networks.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- [The contribution of epidemiological models to the description of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2021Review
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20 authors.
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Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases as long as no vaccination or outstanding medical treatments are available. We assess the effectiveness of the sets of non-pharmaceutical interventions that were in place during the course of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in Germany. Our results are based on hybrid models, combining SIR-type models on local scales with spatial resolution. In order to account for the age-dependence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we include realistic prepandemic and recently recorded contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions will occur on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. In order to account for spatial heterogeneity, we use a graph approach and we include high-quality information on commuting activities combined with traveling information from social networks. The remaining uncertainty will be accounted for by a large number of randomized simulation runs. Based on the derived factors for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions over the past months, we provide different forecast scenarios for the upcoming time.
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