ArticleBMJ open2021
India's pragmatic vaccination strategy against COVID-19: a mathematical modelling-based analysis.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- COVID-19 vaccination strategies in settings with limited rollout capacity: a mathematical modelling case study in Sierra Leone.BMC public health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 preparedness and response in rural and remote areas: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among the Health Care Workers in a Tertiary Care Centre, South India.Vaccines · 2022Article
- 'Imperfect but useful': pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review.BMC medicine · 2021Review
- Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India.The Lancet. Global health · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among non-medical frontline workers in Pune, Maharashtra, India.The Indian journal of medical researchArticle
- Community voices around COVID-19 vaccine in Chennai, India: A qualitative exploration during early phase of vaccine rollout.The Indian journal of medical researchArticle
- Characterizing the third wave of COVID-19: An analysis from the National Clinical Registry of COVID-19.The Indian journal of medical researchArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo investigate the impact of targeted vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19, as well as on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2, in India.
designMathematical modelling. SETTINGS: Indian epidemic of COVID-19 and vulnerable population. DATA SOURCES: Country-specific and age-segregated pattern of social contact, case fatality rate and demographic data obtained from peer-reviewed literature and public domain. MODEL: An age-structured dynamical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in India incorporating uncertainty in natural history parameters was constructed.
interventionsComparison of different vaccine strategies by targeting priority groups such as keyworkers including healthcare professionals, individuals with comorbidities (24-60 years old) and all above 60.
main outcome measuresIncidence reduction and averted deaths in different scenarios, assuming that the current restrictions are fully lifted as vaccination is implemented.
resultsThe priority groups together account for about 18% of India's population. An infection-preventing vaccine with 60% efficacy covering all these groups would reduce peak symptomatic incidence by 20.6% (95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 16.7-25.4) and cumulative mortality by 29.7% (95% CrI 25.8-33.8). A similar vaccine with ability to prevent symptoms (but not infection) will reduce peak incidence of symptomatic cases by 10.4% (95% CrI 8.4-13.0) and cumulative mortality by 32.9% (95% CrI 28.6-37.3). In the event of insufficient vaccine supply to cover all priority groups, model projections suggest that after keyworkers, vaccine strategy should prioritise all who are >60 and subsequently individuals with comorbidities. In settings with weakest transmission, such as sparsely populated rural areas, those with comorbidities should be prioritised after keyworkers.
conclusionsAn appropriately targeted vaccination strategy would witness substantial mitigation of impact of COVID-19 in a country like India with wide heterogeneity. 'Smart vaccination', based on public health considerations, rather than mass vaccination, appears prudent.
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