ArticleBMC musculoskeletal disorders2021
Predicting the duration of sickness absence due to knee osteoarthritis: a prognostic model developed in a population-based cohort in Sweden.
Article in BMC musculoskeletal disorders, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Identifying risk factors of long sickness absences: a registry-based study using explainable AI methods.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Digital self-management of hip and knee osteoarthritis and trajectories of work and activity impairments.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2023Observational
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPredicting the duration of sickness absence (SA) among sickness absent patients is a task many sickness certifying physicians as well as social insurance officers struggle with. Our aim was to develop a prediction model for prognosticating the duration of SA due to knee osteoarthritis.
methodsA population-based prospective study of SA spells was conducted using comprehensive microdata linked from five Swedish nationwide registers. All 12,098 new SA spells > 14 days due to knee osteoarthritis in 1/1 2010 through 30/6 2012 were included for individuals 18-64 years. The data was split into a development dataset (70 %, n
resultsOf all SA spells, 53 % were > 90 days and 3 % >365 days. Factors included in the final model were age, sex, geographical region, extent of sickness absence, previous sickness absence, history of specialized outpatient healthcare and/or inpatient healthcare, employment status, and educational level. The model was well calibrated. Overall, discrimination was poor (c = 0.53, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.54). For predicting SA > 90 days, discrimination as measured by AUC was 0.63 (95 % CI 0.61-0.65), for > 180 days, 0.69 (95 % CI 0.65-0.71), and for SA > 365 days, AUC was 0.75 (95 % CI 0.72-0.78).
conclusionIt was possible to predict patients at risk of long-term SA (> 180 days) with acceptable precision. However, the prediction of duration of SA spells due to knee osteoarthritis has room for improvement.
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