ArticleEpidemiology and infection2021
Development and validation of a clinical and genetic model for predicting risk of severe COVID-19.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Identifying direct risk factors in UK Biobank via simultaneous Bayesian-frequentist model-averaged hypothesis testing using Doublethink.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- The Initial COVID-19 Reliable Interactive DNA Methylation Markers and Biological Implications.Biology · 2024Article
- Associations between polygenic risk score and covid-19 susceptibility and severity across ethnic groups: UK Biobank analysis.BMC medical genomics · 2023Article
- Immunohematologic Biomarkers in COVID-19: Insights into Pathogenesis, Prognosis, and Prevention.Pathogens & immunity · 2023Review
- Article
- Genomic Transcriptome Benefits and Potential Harms of COVID-19 Vaccines Indicated from Optimized Genomic Biomarkers.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Article
- Predicting COVID-19 disease severity from SARS-CoV-2 spike protein sequence by mixed effects machine learning.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
- Transmembrane protease serine 2 (Life science alliance · 2022Article
- Host genetic loci LZTFL1 and CCL2 associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity of COVID-19.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- The human genetic epidemiology of COVID-19.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2022Review
- The Existence of at Least Three Genomic Signature Patterns and at Least Seven Subtypes of COVID-19 and the End of the Disease.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Validation of a clinical and genetic model for predicting severe COVID-19.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Host genetic factors determining COVID-19 susceptibility and severity.EBioMedicine · 2021Review
- Update on human genetic susceptibility to COVID-19: susceptibility to virus and response.Human genomics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Clinical and genetic risk factors for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are often considered independently and without knowledge of the magnitudes of their effects on risk. Using severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive participants from the UK Biobank, we developed and validated a clinical and genetic model to predict risk of severe COVID-19. We used multivariable logistic regression on a 70% training dataset and used the remaining 30% for validation. We also validated a previously published prototype model. In the validation dataset, our new model was associated with severe COVID-19 (odds ratio per quintile of risk = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64-1.90) and had acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.732, 95% CI 0.708-0.756). We assessed calibration using logistic regression of the log odds of the risk score, and the new model showed no evidence of over- or under-estimation of risk (α = -0.08; 95% CI -0.21-0.05) and no evidence or over-or under-dispersion of risk (β = 0.90, 95% CI 0.80-1.00). Accurate prediction of individual risk is possible and will be important in regions where vaccines are not widely available or where people refuse or are disqualified from vaccination, especially given uncertainty about the extent of infection transmission among vaccinated people and the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.
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