ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
Modeling Provincial Covid-19 Epidemic Data Using an Adjusted Time-Dependent SIRD Model.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Fitting Early Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparison of the Performances of Used Models.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- COVID-19 in Italy: Is the Mortality Analysis a Way to Estimate How the Epidemic Lasts?Biology · 2023Article
- Fuzzy-SIRD model: Forecasting COVID-19 death tolls considering governments intervention.Artificial intelligence in medicine · 2022Article
- Forecasting of a complex phenomenon using stochastic data-based techniques under non-conventional schemes: The SARS-CoV-2 virus spread case.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Uncertainty quantification in Covid-19 spread: Lockdown effects.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Long-term prediction of the sporadic COVID-19 epidemics induced byThe European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Hybrid Model-Based Simulation Analysis on the Effects of Social Distancing Policy of the COVID-19 Epidemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2020Article
- Network-based prediction of COVID-19 epidemic spreading in Italy.Applied network science · 2020Article
- Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact.Journal of policy modelingArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a forecasting model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e., EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and local newspaper websites. This data integration is needed as COVID-19 death data are not available at the NUTS-3 level from official open data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic; specifically, the number of susceptible, infected, deceased, recovered people and epidemiological parameters. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.
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Registered trials
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