ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
Nine Months of COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: A Comparative Time Series Analysis of Cases and Fatalities in 35 Countries.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- The spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe: time-series clustering maps 5 distinct trajectories to spatial patterns.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- COVID-19 infections among Iraqi school students: Severity, types, and symptoms.Journal of medicine and life · 2023Article
- COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalized Parkinson's disease patients in two pandemic waves in 2020: a nationwide cross-sectional study from Germany.Neurological research and practice · 2022Article
- A Comparison of Germany and the United Kingdom Indicates That More SARS-CoV-2 Circulation and Less Restrictions in the Warm Season Might Reduce Overall COVID-19 Burden.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Individuals With SARS-CoV-2 Infection During the First and Second Waves in Catalonia, Spain: Retrospective Observational Study Using Daily Updated Data.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Observational
- Evolution of hospitalized patient characteristics through the first three COVID-19 waves in Paris area using machine learning analysis.PloS one · 2022Article
- Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Sample of Health Workers in Two Health Departments of the Valencian Community in Spain.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Comparing community mobility reduction between first and second COVID-19 waves.Transport policy · 2021Article
- Forecasting the Long-Term Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemic Using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
(1) Background: to describe the dynamic of the pandemic across 35 European countries over a period of 9 months. (2) Methods: a three-phase time series model was fitted for 35 European countries, predicting deaths based on SARS-CoV-2 incidences. Hierarchical clustering resulted in three clusters of countries. A multiple regression model was developed predicting thresholds for COVID-19 incidences, coupled to death numbers. (3) Results: The model showed strongly connected deaths and incidences during the waves in spring and fall. The corrected case-fatality rates ranged from 2% to 20.7% in the first wave, and from 0.5% to 4.2% in the second wave. If the incidences stay below a threshold, predicted by the regression model (R2=85.0%), COVID-19 related deaths and incidences were not necessarily coupled. The clusters represented different regions in Europe, and the corrected case-fatality rates in each cluster flipped from high to low or vice versa. Severely and less severely affected countries flipped between the first and second wave. (4) Conclusions: COVID-19 incidences and related deaths were uncoupled during the summer but coupled during two waves. Once a country-specific threshold of infections is reached, death numbers will start to rise, allowing health care systems and countries to prepare.
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