ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- ONCOS-102 plus pemetrexed and platinum chemotherapy in malignant pleural mesothelioma: a randomized phase 2 study investigating clinical outcomes and the tumor microenvironment.Journal for immunotherapy of cancer · 2023Trial
- Fraction of Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogens in Korea between 2015 and 2030.Cancer research and treatment · 2026Article
- Latency Period Among Asbestosis Cases in South Korea by Demographic and Asbestos Exposure Characteristics.Toxics · 2025Article
- Air pollution and survival in patients with malignant mesothelioma and asbestos-related lung cancer: a follow-up study of 1591 patients in South Korea.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2024Article
- Disease Latency according to Asbestos Exposure Characteristics among Malignant Mesothelioma and Asbestos-Related Lung Cancer Cases in South Korea.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Impact of Naturally Occurring Asbestos on Asbestos Ban: Regulations and Experience of the Republic of Korea.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- The Epidemiologic Characteristics of Malignant Mesothelioma Cases in Korea: Findings of the Asbestos Injury Relief System from 2011-2015.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a cancer that is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Although asbestos is no longer used in South Korea, the incidence of MM continues to increase due to its long latent period. We aimed to update the previous prediction of MM incidence until 2038. We predicted the incidence of MM over the next 20 years (2019-2038) in South Korea using Møller's age-period-cohort (APC) model and a Poisson regression model based on asbestos consumption. The APC model predicted that the crude incidence rate would increase sharply in men and slowly in women. Despite the sex discrepancy in the rate of increase, the incidence rate for both sexes is expected to continue increasing until 2038. In the Poisson model, the crude incidence rate was predicted to increase continuously until 2038, and far more cases of MM were predicted to occur compared with the results of the APC model. When compared with actual incidence data, the APC model was deemed more suitable than the Poisson model. The APC model predicted a continuous increase over the next 20 years with no peak, suggesting that the incidence of MM will continue to rise far into the future.
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