ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Smallpox outbreak scenarios and reactive intervention protocols: A mathematical model-based analysis applied to the Republic of Korea.PloS one · 2026Article
- Fostering Workforce Wellness: Insights from Nurse Managers and Early Childhood Educators.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
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- Vaccination for communicable endemic diseases: optimal allocation of initial and booster vaccine doses.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 based on policy, vaccination, and Omicron data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Age-Stratified Model to Assess Health Outcomes of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies, Ghana.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature.Yonsei medical journal · 2023Review
- Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Effective screening strategies for safe opening of universities under Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study.Journal of Korean medical science · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling of the impact of Omicron variant on the COVID-19 situation in South Korea.Genomics & informatics · 2022Article
- Cognitive Barriers to COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake Among Older Adults.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
(1) Background: The vaccine supply is likely to be limited in 2021 due to constraints in manufacturing. To maximize the benefit from the rollout phase, an optimal strategy of vaccine allocation is necessary based on each country's epidemic status. (2) Methods: We first developed a heterogeneous population model considering the transmission matrix using maximum likelihood estimation based on the epidemiological records of individual COVID-19 cases in the Republic of Korea. Using this model, the vaccine priorities for minimizing mortality or incidence were investigated. (3) Results: The simulation results showed that the optimal vaccine allocation strategy to minimize the mortality (or incidence) was to prioritize elderly and healthcare workers (or adults) as long as the reproductive number was below 1.2 (or over 0.9). (4) Conclusion: Our simulation results support the current Korean government vaccination priority strategy, which prioritizes healthcare workers and senior groups to minimize mortality, under the condition that the reproductive number remains below 1.2. This study revealed that, in order to maintain the current vaccine priority policy, it is important to ensure that the reproductive number does not exceed the threshold by concurrently implementing nonpharmaceutical interventions.
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