Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34200681›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021

Population Mobility Trends, Deprivation Index and the Spatio-Temporal Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ireland.

Jamie M Madden, Simon More, Conor Teljeur, Justin Gleeson, Cathal Walsh, Guy McGrath

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jamie M MaddenCentre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, D04 W6F6 Dublin, Ireland.ORCID 0000-0003-2383-5150
Simon MoreCentre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, D04 W6F6 Dublin, Ireland.ORCID 0000-0002-4270-0385
Conor TeljeurHealth Technology Assessment Directorate, Health Information and Quality Authority, D07 E98Y Dublin, Ireland.
Justin GleesonNational Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis, National University of Ireland Maynooth, W23 F2H6 Kildare, Ireland.
Cathal WalshHealth Research Institute and MACSI, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX Limerick, Ireland.ORCID 0000-0001-6599-9562
Guy McGrathCentre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, D04 W6F6 Dublin, Ireland.ORCID 0000-0002-8545-396X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Like most countries worldwide, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has adversely affected Ireland. The aim of this study was to (i) investigate the spatio-temporal trend of COVID-19 incidence; (ii) describe mobility trends as measured by aggregated mobile phone records; and (iii) investigate the association between deprivation index, population density and COVID-19 cases while accounting for spatial and temporal correlation. Standardised incidence ratios of cases were calculated and mapped at a high spatial resolution (electoral division level) over time. Trends in the percentage change in mobility compared to a pre-COVID-19 period were plotted to investigate the impact of lockdown restrictions. We implemented a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model (Besag, York and Mollié (BYM)), commonly used for disease mapping, to investigate the association between covariates and the number of cases. There have been three distinct "waves" of COVID-19 cases in Ireland to date. Lockdown restrictions led to a substantial reduction in human movement, particularly during the 1st and 3rd wave. Despite adjustment for population density (incidence ratio (IR) = 1.985 (1.915-2.058)) and the average number of persons per room (IR = 10.411 (5.264-22.533)), we found an association between deprivation index and COVID-19 incidence (IR = 1.210 (CI: 1.077-1.357) for the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived). There is a large range of spatial heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases in Ireland. The methods presented can be used to explore locally intensive surveillance with the possibility of localised lockdown measures to curb the transmission of infection, while keeping other, low-incidence areas open. Our results suggest that prioritising densely populated deprived areas (that are at increased risk of comorbidities) during vaccination rollout may capture people that are at risk of infection and, potentially, also those at increased risk of hospitalisation.

Indexed as

COVID-19Bayes TheoremCommunicable Disease ControlHumansIrelandSARS-CoV-2COVID-19disease mappingspatial statisticsspatio-temporalstandardised incidence ratio

Identifiers

PMID34200681
PMCPMC8296107

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.