ArticleBMC geriatrics2021
Development of a multivariable prognostic PREdiction model for 1-year risk of FALLing in a cohort of community-dwelling older adults aged 75 years and above (PREFALL).
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03608709 (Development of a Multivariable Prognostic PREdiction Model for 1-year Risk of FALLing in Community-dwelling Older Adults in a Non-clinical Setting), which is not on this map. Cited by 15 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Development of a Multivariable Prognostic PREdiction Model for 1-year Risk of FALLing in Community-dwelling Older Adults in a Non-clinical Setting
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Does concern about falling predict future falls in older adults? A systematic review and meta-analysis.Age and ageing · 2025Pooled it
- Association between dizziness and future falls and fall-related injuries in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Age and ageing · 2024Pooled it
- A systematic review of fall prediction models for community-dwelling older adults: comparison between models based on research cohorts and models based on routinely collected data.Age and ageing · 2024Pooled it
- Validation of a fall rate prediction model for community-dwelling older adults: a combined analysis of three cohorts with 1850 participants.BMC geriatrics · 2024Pooled it
- Factors associated with falls in older adults: A secondary analysis of a 12-month randomized controlled trial.Archives of gerontology and geriatrics · 2023Trial
- Fall-Risk-Increasing drugs and falls in community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study in a single Danish municipality.European geriatric medicine · 2026Article
- Home Environmental Factors and Functional Ability as Determinants of Falls Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Implications for Primary Health Care.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Prevalence and Risk Factors of Unintentional In-Home Injuries in Older Adults.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
- Predicting fall risk among older adults in Chinese communities with advanced machine learning techniques: a retrospective study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Risk factors and predictors of contralateral hip fracture after surgical treatment in elderly patients.Frontiers in aging · 2025Article
- Activity and Participation Are Associated With Future Falls, Hospitalizations, and Emergency Visits in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.Physical therapy · 2024Article
- Development of a personalized fall rate prediction model in community-dwelling older adults: a negative binomial regression modelling approach.BMC geriatrics · 2023Article
- Falls and associated risk factors in a sample of old age population in Egyptian community.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- History of falls and fear of falling are predictive of future falls: Outcome of a fall rate model applied to the Swiss CHEF Trial cohort.Frontiers in aging · 2022Article
- The Added Value of Combined Timed Up and Go Test, Walking Speed, and Grip Strength on Predicting Recurrent Falls in Chinese Community-dwelling Elderly.Clinical interventions in aging · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundFalls are the leading cause of fatal and non-fatal injuries in older adults, and attention to falls prevention is imperative. Prognostic models identifying high-risk individuals could guide fall-preventive interventions in the rapidly growing older population. We aimed to develop a prognostic prediction model on falls rate in community-dwelling older adults.
methodsDesign: prospective cohort study with 12 months follow-up and participants recruited from June 14, 2018, to July 18, 2019.
settinggeneral population. SUBJECTS: community-dwelling older adults aged 75+ years, without dementia or acute illness, and able to stand unsupported for one minute. OUTCOME: fall rate for 12 months. STATISTICAL
methodscandidate predictors were physical and cognitive tests along with self-report questionnaires. We developed a Poisson model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization, leave-one-out cross-validation, and bootstrap resampling with 1000 iterations.
resultsSample size at study start and end was 241 and 198 (82%), respectively. The number of fallers was 87 (36%), and the fall rate was 0.94 falls per person-year. Predictors included in the final model were educational level, dizziness, alcohol consumption, prior falls, self-perceived falls risk, disability, and depressive symptoms. Mean absolute error (95% CI) was 0.88 falls (0.71-1.16).
conclusionWe developed a falls prediction model for community-dwelling older adults in a general population setting. The model was developed by selecting predictors from among physical and cognitive tests along with self-report questionnaires. The final model included only the questionnaire-based predictors, and its predictions had an average imprecision of less than one fall, thereby making it appropriate for clinical practice. Future external validation is needed.
trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03608709 ).
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.