Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34191979›Full record

ArticleStatistics in biopharmaceutical research2020

Clinical Trials Impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic: Adaptive Designs to the Rescue?

Cornelia Ursula Kunz, Silke Jörgens, Frank Bretz, Nigel Stallard, Kelly Van Lancker, Dong Xi, Sarah Zohar, Christoph Gerlinger, Tim Friede

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics in biopharmaceutical research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  19. On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic.Advances in statistical analysis : AStA : a journal of the German Statistical Society · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Cornelia Ursula KunzBoehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KG, Biberach, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8900-9401
Silke JörgensJanssen-Cilag GmbH, Neuss, Germany.
Frank BretzNovartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.
Nigel StallardDivision of Health Sciences, Warwick Medical School, The University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Kelly Van LanckerDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Dong XiNovartis Pharmaceuticals, East Hanover, NJ.
Sarah ZoharINSERM, Centre de Recherche des Cordeliers, Sorbonne Université, Université de Paris, Paris, France.
Christoph GerlingerStatistics and Data Insights, Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany.
Tim FriedeDepartment of Medical Statistics, University Medical Center Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5347-7441

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Very recently the new pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. The pandemic has a number of consequences for ongoing clinical trials in non-COVID-19 conditions. Motivated by four current clinical trials in a variety of disease areas we illustrate the challenges faced by the pandemic and sketch out possible solutions including adaptive designs. Guidance is provided on (i) where blinded adaptations can help; (ii) how to achieve Type I error rate control, if required; (iii) how to deal with potential treatment effect heterogeneity; (iv) how to use early read-outs; and (v) how to use Bayesian techniques. In more detail approaches to resizing a trial affected by the pandemic are developed including considerations to stop a trial early, the use of group-sequential designs or sample size adjustment. All methods considered are implemented in a freely available R shiny app. Furthermore, regulatory and operational issues including the role of data monitoring committees are discussed.

Indexed as

Design changesHeterogeneityInterim analysisSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID34191979
PMCPMC8011492

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.