Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34190045›Full record

ArticleeLife2021

Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset.

Ariel Karlinsky, Dmitry Kobak

Abstract readDataset
In one paragraph

Article in eLife, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 313 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
313citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

313 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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253 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Ariel KarlinskyHebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel.ORCID 0000-0003-0966-5837
Dmitry KobakInstitute for Ophthalmic Research, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-5639-7209

Funding

Generation of novel cell type specific mouse genetic toolsU19MH114830 · NIMH · ALLEN INSTITUTE · PI NGAI, JOHN J. · 2017 to 2021
$64.7M
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft 390727645 and BE5601/4-1Federal Ministry of Education and Research FKZ 01GQ1601 and 01IS18039ANIH HHS U19MH114830NIMH NIH HHS U19 MH114830
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Comparing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic between countries or across time is difficult because the reported numbers of cases and deaths can be strongly affected by testing capacity and reporting policy. Excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to the expected mortality, is widely considered as a more objective indicator of the COVID-19 death toll. However, there has been no global, frequently updated repository of the all-cause mortality data across countries. To fill this gap, we have collected weekly, monthly, or quarterly all-cause mortality data from 103 countries and territories, openly available as the regularly updated World Mortality Dataset. We used this dataset to compute the excess mortality in each country during the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that in several worst-affected countries (Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Mexico) the excess mortality was above 50% of the expected annual mortality (Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Mexico) or above 400 excess deaths per 100,000 population (Peru, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Serbia). At the same time, in several other countries (e.g. Australia and New Zealand) mortality during the pandemic was below the usual level, presumably due to social distancing measures decreasing the non-COVID infectious mortality. Furthermore, we found that while many countries have been reporting the COVID-19 deaths very accurately, some countries have been substantially underreporting their COVID-19 deaths (e.g. Nicaragua, Russia, Uzbekistan), by up to two orders of magnitude (Tajikistan). Our results highlight the importance of open and rapid all-cause mortality reporting for pandemic monitoring.

Indexed as

COVID-19Epidemiological MonitoringGlobal HealthHumansPandemicsPhysical DistancingPublic HealthSARS-CoV-2COVIDdataepidemiologyglobal healthhumaninternationalmortality

Identifiers

PMID34190045
PMCPMC8331176

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.