Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34188785›Full record

ArticleComputational and structural biotechnology journal2021

Eleven routine clinical features predict COVID-19 severity uncovered by machine learning of longitudinal measurements.

Kai Zhou, Yaoting Sun, Lu Li, Zelin Zang, Jing Wang, Jun Li, Junbo Liang, Fangfei Zhang, Qiushi Zhang, Weigang Ge and 24 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Computational and structural biotechnology journal, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.3field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Retrospective Post-Hospitalisation COVID-19 Mortality Risk Assessment of Patients in South Africa.European journal of investigation in health, psychology and education · 2023
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

34 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Kai ZhouTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Yaoting SunKey Laboratory of Structural Biology of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Lu LiKey Laboratory of Structural Biology of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Zelin ZangSchool of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou 310024, Zhejiang Province, China.
Jing WangTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Jun LiTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Junbo LiangTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Fangfei ZhangKey Laboratory of Structural Biology of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Qiushi ZhangWestlake Omics (Hangzhou) Biotechnology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310024, Zhejiang Province, China.
Weigang GeWestlake Omics (Hangzhou) Biotechnology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310024, Zhejiang Province, China.
Hao ChenWestlake Omics (Hangzhou) Biotechnology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310024, Zhejiang Province, China.
Xindong SunKey Laboratory of Structural Biology of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Liang YueKey Laboratory of Structural Biology of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Xiaomai WuTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Bo ShenTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Jiaqin XuTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Hongguo ZhuTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Shiyong ChenTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Hai YangTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Shigao HuangInstitute of Translational Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, 999078 Macau SAR, China.
Minfei PengTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Dongqing LvTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Chao ZhangTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Haihong ZhaoTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Luxiao HongTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Zhehan ZhouTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Haixiao ChenTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Xuejun DongShaoxing People's Hospital, Shaoxing Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Shaoxing 312000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Chunyu TuShaoxing People's Hospital, Shaoxing Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Shaoxing 312000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Minghui LiShaoxing People's Hospital, Shaoxing Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Shaoxing 312000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Yi ZhuKey Laboratory of Structural Biology of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Baofu ChenTaizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Linhai 317000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Stan Z LiSchool of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou 310024, Zhejiang Province, China.
Tiannan GuoKey Laboratory of Structural Biology of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Wenzhou Medical University · CNWestlake University · CNShaoxing People's Hospital · CNUniversity of Macau · MO

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Severity prediction of COVID-19 remains one of the major clinical challenges for the ongoing pandemic. Here, we have recruited a 144 COVID-19 patient cohort, resulting in a data matrix containing 3,065 readings for 124 types of measurements over 52 days. A machine learning model was established to predict the disease progression based on the cohort consisting of training, validation, and internal test sets. A panel of eleven routine clinical factors constructed a classifier for COVID-19 severity prediction, achieving accuracy of over 98% in the discovery set. Validation of the model in an independent cohort containing 25 patients achieved accuracy of 80%. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 0.70, 0.99, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively. Our model captured predictive dynamics of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatine kinase (CK) while their levels were in the normal range. This model is accessible at https://www.guomics.com/covidAI/ for research purpose.

Indexed as

ABG, arterial blood gasAPTT, activated partial thromboplastin timeAST, aspartate aminotransferaseAUC, area under the curveBASO#, basophil countsCFDA, China Food and Drug AdministrationCK, creatine kinaseCOVID-19CRP, C-reactive proteinCT, computed tomographyeGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rateESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rateGA, genetic algorithmGGT, gamma glutamyl transpeptidaseHIS, hospital information systemLAC, lactateLDH, lactate dehydrogenaseLOESS, locally estimated scatterplot smoothingLongitudinal dynamicsLOS, length of stayMachine learningMg, magnesiumNETs, neutrophil extracellular trapsNPV, negative predictive valuePCT, procalcitoninPPV, positive predictive valueROC, receiver operating characteristicsRoutine clinical testRT-PCR, reverse transcriptase -polymerase chain reactionSaO2, oxygen saturationSARS-CoV-2Severity predictionSHAP, SHapley Additive exPlanationsSVM, support vector machineTT, thrombin time

Identifiers

PMID34188785
PMCPMC8225590
OpenAlexW3100945976

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.