ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021
Timing HIV infection with a simple and accurate population viral dynamics model.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Anti-HIV antibody development up to 1 year after antiretroviral therapy initiation in acute HIV infection.The Journal of clinical investigation · 2022Trial
- Clinical trial simulation of antiviral drugs.Journal of virology · 2026Review
- A Darwinian model for the evolution of drug resistance to long-acting PrEP during an early HIV infection.PloS one · 2026Article
- Review
- Assessing the impact of autologous neutralizing antibodies on rebound dynamics in postnatally SHIV-infected ART-treated infant rhesus macaques.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Modeling dynamics of acute HIV infection incorporating density-dependent cell death and multiplicity of infection.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Comparative analysis of within-host dynamics of acute infection and viral rebound dynamics in postnatally SHIV-infected ART-treated infant rhesus macaques.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Estimating the contribution of CD4 T cell subset proliferation and differentiation to HIV persistence.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Acute HIV-1 infection viremia associate with rebound upon treatment interruption.Med (New York, N.Y.) · 2022Article
- Evolution during primary HIV infection does not require adaptive immune selection.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Timing HIV infection with a simple and accurate population viral dynamics model.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Clinical trials for HIV prevention can require knowledge of infection times to subsequently determine protective drug levels. Yet, infection timing is difficult when study visits are sparse. Using population nonlinear mixed-effects (pNLME) statistical inference and viral loads from 46 RV217 study participants, we developed a relatively simple HIV primary infection model that achieved an excellent fit to all data. We also discovered that Aptima assay values from the study strongly correlated with viral loads, enabling imputation of very early viral loads for 28/46 participants. Estimated times between infecting exposures and first positives were generally longer than prior estimates (average of two weeks) and were robust to missing viral upslope data. On simulated data, we found that tighter sampling before diagnosis improved estimation more than tighter sampling after diagnosis. Sampling weekly before and monthly after diagnosis was a pragmatic design for good timing accuracy. Our pNLME timing approach is widely applicable to other infections with existing mathematical models. The present model could be used to simulate future HIV trials and may help estimate protective thresholds from the recently completed antibody-mediated prevention trials.
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